Optimising the expansion of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program.
Optimising the expansion of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program.
复制标题
DOI：
10.5694/mja13.00112
复制
发表时间：
2014-10-20
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lansdorp-Vogelaar I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cenin DR;St John DJ;Ledger MJ;Slevin T;Lansdorp-Vogelaar I
评估国家肠癌筛查计划（NBSCP）的各种扩展方案对预防肠癌死亡人数的影响。还研究了扩张方案对结肠镜检查需求的影响。MISCAN-Colon是一个成熟的、经过验证的肠癌筛查计算机模拟模型，经过调整以反映澳大利亚的情况。2013年7月，我们模拟了从2006年开始的50年内筛查的影响。模型参数包括筛查和随访的参与率、癌性和癌前病变识别率、肠癌发病率、死亡率和NBCSP的结局。根据使用免疫化学粪便潜血试验进行的两年一次的筛查，制定了五种执行设想方案，并建立了模型。还进行了敏感性分析，将筛查参与率提高到60%。50至74岁的澳大利亚居民五种实施方案对预防肠癌死亡人数和结肠镜检查需求的影响和比较。根据MISCAN-Colon的计算，NBCSP在未来40年内将预防35，169例肠癌死亡。加快扩大该计划，到2020年实现两年一次的筛查，将防止7万多人死亡。如果两年一次筛查的全面实施导致参与率相应增加到60%，则在所有情景中预防的死亡人数都将增加。研究结果强烈支持快速实施国家肠癌筛查计划的必要性。与目前的情况相比，到2020年实现两年一次的筛查可能会导致在未来40年内预防100%的肠癌死亡（约35，000人）。
To estimate the impact of various expansion scenarios of the National Bowel Cancer Screening program (NBSCP) on the number of bowel cancer deaths prevented. Impact of the expansion scenarios on colonoscopy demand was also investigated. MISCAN-Colon, a well-established, validated computer simulation model for bowel cancer screening, was adjusted to reflect the Australian situation. In July 2013, we simulated the effects of screening over a 50 year period, starting in 2006. The model parameters included participation rates for screening and follow up, cancerous and pre-cancerous lesion identification rates, bowel cancer incidence, mortality and the outcomes of the NBCSP. Five implementation scenarios, based on biennial screening using an immunochemical faecal occult blood test, were developed and modelled. A sensitivity analysis that increased screening participation to 60% was also conducted. Australian residents aged 50 to 74 years Impact and comparison of five implementation scenarios on the number of bowel cancer deaths prevented and demand for colonoscopy. In its current state, MISCAN-Colon calculated that the NBCSP should prevent 35,169 bowel cancer deaths in the coming 40 years. Accelerating the expansion of the program to achieve biennial screening by 2020, more than 70,000 deaths would be prevented. If complete implementation of biennial screening resulted in a corresponding increase in participation to 60%, the number of deaths prevented increased across all scenarios. The findings strongly support the need for rapid implementation of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program. Compared to the current situation, achieving biennial screening by 2020 could result in 100% more bowel cancer deaths being prevented (approximately 35,000) in the coming 40 years.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00505.x
发表时间：
2010-04-01
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Jalleh, Geoffrey;Donovan, Robert J.;Ledger, Melissa
通讯作者：
Ledger, Melissa
DOI：
10.1111/j.1463-1318.2004.00585.x
发表时间：
2004-05-01
期刊：
Colorectal disease : the official journal of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland
影响因子：
--
作者：
Colquhoun, P;Chen, H-C;Wexner, S D
通讯作者：
Wexner, S D
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris;van Ballegooijen, Marjolein;Boer, Rob;Zauber, Ann;Habbema, J. Dik F.
通讯作者：
Habbema, J. Dik F.
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
MANDEL, JS;BOND, JH;EDERER, F
通讯作者：
EDERER, F
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Ananda, Sumitra S.;McLaughlin, Stephen J.;Gibbs, Peter
通讯作者：
Gibbs, Peter