Spatial econometric analysis of carbon emission intensity and its driving factors from energy consumption in China
Spatial econometric analysis of carbon emission intensity and its driving factors from energy consumption in China
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
Cheng Yeqin
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作者：
Cheng Yeqin
碳排放导致的全球气候变化给经济社会发展带来了严峻挑战。作为一个负责任的发展中国家，中国承诺到2020年将碳排放强度在2005年的基础上降低40%-45%。这一目标的实现，既有赖于全国范围内社会经济和产业结构的实质性转型，也有赖于省级范围内节能减排的具体作为和占比。本文基于政府间气候变化专门委员会提供的方法，利用空间自相关分析和空间面板计量模型，对1997年-2010年中国能源消费碳排放强度的时空动态模式及其影响因素进行了研究。旨在为中国制定不同的节能减排政策提供科学依据。结果如下所示。首先，1997年至2010年，中国的碳排放量从4.16亿吨增加到11.29亿吨，年增长率为7.15%，远低于国内生产总值的年增长率(11.72%)，因此中国的碳排放强度呈下降趋势。其次，Moran‘s I变化曲线表明，中国能源消费碳排放强度在省级尺度上具有持续增强的空间集聚趋势。数值较高和较低的省份似乎在某种程度上是路径依赖的或空间锁定的。第三，通过空间面板计量模型分析发现，能源强度、能源结构、产业结构和城镇化率是影响中国能源消费碳排放强度时空格局的领域因素。因此，要实现节能减排目标，必须提高能源利用效率，优化能源结构和产业结构，选择低碳城镇化道路，实施节能减排区域合作战略。
The economic and social development has been facing with serious challenge brought by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a responsible developing country, China pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity by 40%- 45% below 2005levels by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society, economy and industrial structure in national scale, but also the specific action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction in provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns and domain factors of China's carbon emission intensity from energy consumption in 1997- 2010 using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial panel econometric model. The aim is to provide scientific basis for making different policies on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China's carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt in 1997-2010, with an annual rate of 7.15%, which was much slower than that of annual growth rate of GDP(11.72%); therefore, China's carbon emission intensity tended to decline. Secondly, the changing curve of Moran's I indicated that China's carbon emission intensity from energy consumption has a continued strengthening tendency of spatial agglomeration at provincial scale. The provinces with higher and lower values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to the analysis of spatial panel econometric model, it can be found that energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the domain factors that have impact on the spatio- temporal patterns of China's carbon emission intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, we should improve the utilizing efficiency of energy, and optimize energy and industrial structure, and choose the low- carbon urbanization way and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.