Can Decision Theory Help End-Users Take the Appropriate Action in an Emergency?
Can Decision Theory Help End-Users Take the Appropriate Action in an Emergency?
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决策理论可以帮助最终用户在紧急情况下采取适当的行动吗？
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-21-0258.1
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Harvey N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harvey N
当出现不确定的信息时，很难决定采取适当的行动，特别是在紧急情况下。决策者可能会受到信息构建方式、风险敏感度以及误报影响等因素的影响。在作出决策时，由于对某一事件的当前状况或未来结果的了解有限而产生的不确定性是不可避免的。然而，不确定性信息的设计和表达并没有一个普遍认可的方法。这篇文章的目的是证明，决策理论可以应用到一个合奏的情况下，建立一个透明的框架，然后可以用来确定最佳的行动分配损失不同的决策结果的合理实现。最佳的行动，然后可视化，使不确定性的信息，以一种简洁的方式适合决策者。损失可根据风险和决策者的个人操作模型进行调整。为了说明这种方法，决策理论将应用于用于航空公司航班规划的火山灰模拟集合，重点关注2019年俄罗斯莱科克火山的喷发。三个理想化的情况下，构建不同的损失模型的最佳行动的影响。在所有情况下，应用决策理论可以显著改变被识别为潜在危险的区域，从而改变潜在的飞行轨迹。因此，我们表明，不同的最终用户会，应该做出不同的决定时，提出了相同的概率信息，根据他们的个人用户的要求。
Making decisions about the appropriate action to take when presented with uncertain information is difficult, particularly in an emergency response situation. Decision-makers can be influenced by factors such as how information is framed, their risk sensitivity, and the impact of false alarms. Uncertainty arising from limited knowledge of the current state or future outcome of an event is unavoidable when making decisions. However, there is no universally agreed method on the design and presentation of uncertainty information. The aim of this article is to demonstrate that decision theory can be applied to an ensemble of plausible realizations of a situation to build a transparent framework that can then be used to determine the optimal action by assigning losses to different decision outcomes. The optimal action is then visualized, enabling the uncertainty information to be presented in a condensed manner suitable for decision-makers. The losses are adaptable depending on the hazard and the individual operational model of the decision-maker. To illustrate this approach, decision theory will be applied to an ensemble of volcanic ash simulations used for the purpose of airline flight planning, focusing on the 2019 eruption of Russian volcano Raikoke. Three idealized scenarios are constructed to show the impact of different loss models on the optimal action. In all cases, applying decision theory can significantly alter the regions, and therefore potential flight tracks, identified as potentially hazardous. Thus, we show that different end-users would and should make different decisions when presented with the same probabilistic information based on their individual user requirements.