Estimating Decadal Predictability for the Southern Ocean Using the GFDL CM2.1 Model
Estimating Decadal Predictability for the Southern Ocean Using the GFDL CM2.1 Model
复制标题
使用 GFDL CM2.1 模型估算南大洋的年代际可预测性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Zeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liping Zhang;T. Delworth;Xiaosong Yang;R. Gudgel;L. Jia;G. Vecchi;F. Zeng
摘要本研究利用GFDL CM2.1模式的预报方法，探讨了南大洋气候在年代际尺度上的潜在可预报性。从10个不同的初始状态开始进行完美的模式可预报性实验，显示潜在的可预测的变化的南极底层水（AABW）的形成率的时间尺度长达20年。相关的威德尔海（WS）次表层温度和南极海冰具有潜在的可预测性相媲美的AABW细胞。海表温度（SST）变化的可预测性在WS和SO是有点小，可预测的尺度达十年。这种可预测性的降低可能与海气相互作用产生的更强阻尼有关。作为对这一完美的可预报性研究的补充，作者还使用GFDL CM2.1年代际预报系统对SO年代际变率进行了后报。在多年时间尺度上对SO SST的重要预测技能...
AbstractThis study explores the potential predictability of the Southern Ocean (SO) climate on decadal time scales as represented in the GFDL CM2.1 model using prognostic methods. Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictable variations of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation rates on time scales as long as 20 years. The associated Weddell Sea (WS) subsurface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice have potential predictability comparable to that of the AABW cell. The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the WS and the SO is somewhat smaller, with predictable scales out to a decade. This reduced predictability is likely associated with stronger damping from air–sea interaction. As a complement to this perfect predictability study, the authors also make hindcasts of SO decadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 decadal prediction system. Significant predictive skill for SO SST on multiyear time scales...
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Goddard, L.;Kumar, A.;Delworth, T.
通讯作者：
Delworth, T.