COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries
COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries
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DOI：
10.1097/j.jcrs.0000000000000337
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Jain, Amit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aggarwal, Shruti;Jain, Punya;Jain, Amit
目的：为了预测2020年美国医疗保险受益人的白内障手术量，并估计可能因COVID-19而造成的手术积压。设置：美国医疗保险受益人。设计：流行病学建模。方法：通过查询医疗保险B部分提供者利用全国摘要数据，评估医疗保险受益人白内障手术的基线趋势。假设一旦手术延迟结束，将有一个上升期;这是使用随机蒙特卡罗模拟建模的。估计了暂停后2年的总手术积压。结果：假设白内障手术于二零二零年五月恢复，在乐观情况下，需要四个月才能恢复至COVID前预期预测量的90%。在暂停两年后，由此产生的积压案件将在110万至160万件之间。敏感性分析显示，尽管未来的手术需求可能会降低，但仍会有大量的手术积压。结论：在COVID-19激增期间暂停择期白内障手术护理可能会对眼科产生持久影响，并可能导致白内障手术患者积压。这些数据可能有助于医生、付款人和政策制定者规划大流行后的恢复。
Purpose: To forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19.Setting: Medicare Beneficiaries, United States.Design: Epidemiologic modeling.Methods: Baseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions.Results: Assuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future.Conclusions: Suspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data may aid physicians, payers, and policymakers in planning for postpandemic recovery.