Spatiotemporal Patterns and Evolution of Storm Surge Threats along the Southeastern Coastline of China
Spatiotemporal Patterns and Evolution of Storm Surge Threats along the Southeastern Coastline of China
复制标题
中国东南沿海风暴潮威胁时空格局及演变
DOI：
10.3390/atmos10020061
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Tengjiao Guo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yue Zhang;Guosheng Li;Tengjiao Guo
风暴潮的多变性对沿海地区构成重大威胁。基于新的强度参数提出了一种名为累积风暴潮潜在影响 (ASPI) 的新指标，该参数消除了风暴潮引起的水位上升的其他成分。这一新指标通过结合频率和强度来量化风暴潮威胁。结果显示，自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，由于风暴潮普遍增加，风暴潮威胁有所增加。直到2000年代中期，极端风暴潮威胁才呈上升趋势。沿着这个海岸发现了不同的区域分布模式。风暴潮威胁呈-++纬向三极格局，负位相为杭州湾北岸，正位相为浙江省中部至南部沿海地区和雷州半岛东部沿海地区。长期风暴潮威胁在三个时期改变空间分布格局。从浙江省中部到南部沿海地区，威胁更加不稳定，这表明风暴潮威胁向极地转移，这与长期热带气旋登陆的趋势一致。同时，雷州半岛东部海岸线1960-1995年持续强威胁，1996-2015年逐渐减弱。中国东南部海岸线风暴潮威胁的演变模式可用于气候变化情景下的沿海适应研究。
The variability of storm surge poses a significant threat to coastal areas. A new metric named Accumulated Storm surge Potential Impact (ASPI) is proposed based on a new intensity parameter that removes other components from storm surge-induced water level rise. This new metric quantifies storm surge threat by combining frequency and intensity. The results show that storm surge threat has increased since the late 1990s due to greater general storm surges. The extreme storm surge threat did not follow the increasing trend until the mid-2000s. Different regional distribution patterns are found along this coast. The storm surge threat exhibited a -++ zonal tripole pattern, the negative phase was along the north coastline of Hangzhou Gulf and the positive phase was from the center to southern coast area of Zhejiang province and along the eastern coast area of Leizhou Peninsula. Long-term storm surge threats change spatial distribution pattern in three periods. More precarious threats from the center to southern coast areas of Zhejiang province illustrated a poleward shift of storm surge threats consistent with the trend of long-term tropical cyclone landfall. Meanwhile, the strong threat along the eastern coast line of Leizhou Peninsula was sustained from 1960 to 1995, then became weaker from 1996 to 2015. The evolution pattern of storm surge threat along the southeastern coastline of China could be applied for coastal adaptation research under climate change scenarios.