Global Prevalence of Glaucoma and Projections of Glaucoma Burden through 2040 A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Global Prevalence of Glaucoma and Projections of Glaucoma Burden through 2040 A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ophtha.2014.05.013
复制
发表时间：
2014-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Cheng, Ching-Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tham, Yih-Chung;Li, Xiang;Cheng, Ching-Yu
目的：青光眼是全球不可逆性失明的主要原因。目前对全球青光眼患病率的估计不是最新的，主要集中在欧洲血统人群。我们系统地研究了原发性开角型青光眼（POAG）和原发性闭角型青光眼（PACG）的全球患病率，并预测了2020年和2040年的患病人数。设计：系统回顾和荟萃分析。参与者：50项基于人群的研究数据140 496例中POAG 3770例，PACG 112 398例中786例。我们检索了PubMed、Medline和Web of Science，以获取截至2013年3月25日发表的基于人群的青光眼患病率研究。分层贝叶斯方法用于估计沿着年龄40-80岁人群的合并青光眼患病率以及95%可信区间（CrIs）。青光眼的预测是根据联合国《世界人口展望》估计的。结果：全球40-80岁人群青光眼患病率为3.54%（95%CrI，2.09 - 5.82），其中40-80岁人群青光眼患病率为1.54%（95%CrI，2.09-5.82），40-80岁人群青光眼患病率为1.54%（95%CrI，2.09-5.82）。POAG的患病率在非洲最高（4.20%; 95%CrI，2.08-7.35），PACG的患病率在亚洲最高（1.09%; 95%CrI，0.43-2.32）。2013年，全球青光眼患者（40-80岁）人数估计为6430万，2020年增加到7600万，2040年增加到1.118亿。在贝叶斯元回归模型中，男性比女性更容易患POAG（比值比[OR]，1.36; 95%CrI，1.23-1.52），在调整年龄、性别、居住类型、应答率和研究年份后，非洲血统的人比欧洲血统的人更容易患POAG（OR，2.80; 95%CrI，1.83-4.06），并且生活在城市地区的人比生活在农村地区的人更可能患有POAG（OR，1.58; 95%CrI，1.19-2.04）。结论：到2040年，全球青光眼患者的数量将增加到1.118亿，严重影响居住在亚洲和非洲的人。这些估计在指导青光眼筛查、治疗和相关公共卫生策略的设计方面非常重要。(C)2014年由美国眼科学会。
Purpose: Glaucoma is the leading cause of global irreversible blindness. Present estimates of global glaucoma prevalence are not up-to-date and focused mainly on European ancestry populations. We systematically examined the global prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG), and projected the number of affected people in 2020 and 2040.Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Participants: Data from 50 population-based studies (3770 POAG cases among 140 496 examined individuals and 786 PACG cases among 112 398 examined individuals).Methods: We searched PubMed, Medline, and Web of Science for population-based studies of glaucoma prevalence published up to March 25, 2013. Hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to estimate the pooled glaucoma prevalence of the population aged 40-80 years along with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Projections of glaucoma were estimated based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Bayesian meta-regression models were performed to assess the association between the prevalence of POAG and the relevant factors.Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence and projection numbers of glaucoma cases.Results: The global prevalence of glaucoma for population aged 40-80 years is 3.54% (95% CrI, 2.09-5.82). The prevalence of POAG is highest in Africa (4.20%; 95% CrI, 2.08-7.35), and the prevalence of PACG is highest in Asia (1.09%; 95% CrI, 0.43-2.32). In 2013, the number of people (aged 40-80 years) with glaucoma worldwide was estimated to be 64.3 million, increasing to 76.0 million in 2020 and 111.8 million in 2040. In the Bayesian meta-regression model, men were more likely to have POAG than women (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CrI, 1.23-1.52), and after adjusting for age, gender, habitation type, response rate, and year of study, people of African ancestry were more likely to have POAG than people of European ancestry (OR, 2.80; 95% CrI, 1.83-4.06), and people living in urban areas were more likely to have POAG than those in rural areas (OR, 1.58; 95% CrI, 1.19-2.04).Conclusions: The number of people with glaucoma worldwide will increase to 111.8 million in 2040, disproportionally affecting people residing in Asia and Africa. These estimates are important in guiding the designs of glaucoma screening, treatment, and related public health strategies. (C) 2014 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.