Estimated Number of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Prevented Among Vaccinated Persons in the US, December 2020 to September 2021.
Estimated Number of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Prevented Among Vaccinated Persons in the US, December 2020 to September 2021.
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DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.20385
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发表时间：
2022-07-01
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Silk, Benjamin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Steele, Molly K.;Couture, Alexia;Reed, Carrie;Iuliano, Danielle;Whitaker, Michael;Fast, Hannah;Hall, Aron J.;MacNeil, Adam;Cadwell, Betsy;Marks, Kristin J.;Silk, Benjamin J.
美国COVID-19疫苗接种计划在接种疫苗的人群中预防了多少SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关的住院和死亡？在这项建模研究中，从2020年12月1日至2021年9月30日，COVID-19疫苗接种估计可预防2700万例SARS-CoV-2感染、160万例COVID-19相关住院和23.5万例COVID-19相关死亡。截至2021年9月30日，疫苗接种预防了约52%的预期感染，56%的预期住院和58%的预期死亡。据估计，美国COVID-19疫苗接种计划可通过直接保护接种疫苗的个人来预防重大发病率和死亡率。这项针对接种COVID-19疫苗的美国成年人的建模研究估计了美国COVID-19疫苗接种计划预防的感染、住院和死亡人数。在接种疫苗的人群中预防的SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关住院和死亡人数，独立于减少传播的效果，是衡量疫苗效果的关键指标。估计在美国接种疫苗的成年人中预防的SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关住院和死亡人数。在这项建模研究中，使用乘数模型从2020年12月1日至2021年9月30日美国按州、月和年龄组（18 - 49岁、50 - 64岁和≥ 65岁）分层的COVID-19相关住院人数数据外推SARS-CoV-2感染人数和COVID-19相关死亡人数。这些估计与疫苗覆盖率和有效性的数据相结合，以估计感染，住院和死亡的风险。将风险应用于18岁或以上的美国人群，以估计未接种疫苗的人群的预期负担。从18岁或以上未接种疫苗的美国人群的预期负担中减去18岁或以上未接种疫苗的美国人群的估计负担（即，反事实），以估计接种疫苗对接种人群的影响。完成COVID-19疫苗接种疗程，定义为2剂信使RNA（BNT 162 b2或mRNA-1273）疫苗或1剂JNJ-78436735疫苗。每月SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19相关住院和预防死亡的人数和百分比是在美国接种疫苗的人中估计的。COVID-19疫苗接种估计可预防约2700万人（95%不确定区间[UI]，2200万至3400万）感染，160万（95% UI，140万至180万）住院，235 000（95% UI，175 000 - 305 000）死亡在美国从2020年12月1日至2021年9月30日，接种疫苗的18岁或以上成年人。从2021年9月1日至9月30日，在18岁或以上的成年人中，疫苗接种估计可预防52%（95% UI，45%-62%）的预期感染，56%（95% UI，52%-62%）的预期住院和58%（95% UI，53%-63%）的预期死亡。这些发现表明，美国COVID-19疫苗接种计划通过直接保护接种疫苗的个人，防止了发病率和死亡率的重大负担。
How many SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19–associated hospitalizations and deaths have been prevented among vaccinated persons by the US COVID-19 vaccination program? In this modeling study, COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to prevent 27 million SARS-CoV-2 infections, 1.6 million COVID-19–associated hospitalizations, and 235 000 COVID-19–associated deaths among vaccinated persons 18 years or older from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. By September 30, 2021, vaccination prevented an estimated 52% of expected infections, 56% of expected hospitalizations, and 58% of expected deaths. The US COVID-19 vaccination program was estimated to prevent substantial morbidity and mortality through direct protection of vaccinated individuals. This modeling study of US adults vaccinated against COVID-19 estimates the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths prevented by the US COVID-19 vaccination program. The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19–associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated persons, independent of the effect of reduced transmission, is a key measure of vaccine impact. To estimate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19–associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented among vaccinated adults in the US. In this modeling study, a multiplier model was used to extrapolate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19–associated deaths from data on the number of COVID-19–associated hospitalizations stratified by state, month, and age group (18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years) in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021. These estimates were combined with data on vaccine coverage and effectiveness to estimate the risks of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Risks were applied to the US population 18 years or older to estimate the expected burden in that population without vaccination. The estimated burden in the US population 18 years or older given observed levels of vaccination was subtracted from the expected burden in the US population 18 years or older without vaccination (ie, counterfactual) to estimate the impact of vaccination among vaccinated persons. Completion of the COVID-19 vaccination course, defined as 2 doses of messenger RNA (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) vaccines or 1 dose of JNJ-78436735 vaccine. Monthly numbers and percentages of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19–associated hospitalizations and deaths prevented were estimated among those who have been vaccinated in the US. COVID-19 vaccination was estimated to prevent approximately 27 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 22 million to 34 million) infections, 1.6 million (95% UI, 1.4 million to 1.8 million) hospitalizations, and 235 000 (95% UI, 175 000–305 000) deaths in the US from December 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, among vaccinated adults 18 years or older. From September 1 to September 30, 2021, vaccination was estimated to prevent 52% (95% UI, 45%–62%) of expected infections, 56% (95% UI, 52%-62%) of expected hospitalizations, and 58% (95% UI, 53%-63%) of expected deaths in adults 18 years or older. These findings indicate that the US COVID-19 vaccination program prevented a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality through direct protection of vaccinated individuals.
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影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Mason TFD;Whitston M;Hodgson J;Watkinson RE;Lau YS;Abdulrazeg O;Sutton M
通讯作者：
Sutton M
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.n1943
发表时间：
2021-08-20
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chung H;He S;Nasreen S;Sundaram ME;Buchan SA;Wilson SE;Chen B;Calzavara A;Fell DB;Austin PC;Wilson K;Schwartz KL;Brown KA;Gubbay JB;Basta NE;Mahmud SM;Righolt CH;Svenson LW;MacDonald SE;Janjua NZ;Tadrous M;Kwong JC;Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Provincial Collaborative Network (PCN) Investigators
通讯作者：
Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Provincial Collaborative Network (PCN) Investigators
影响因子：
39.2
作者：
Butt, Adeel A.;Omer, Saad B.;Mayr, Florian B.
通讯作者：
Mayr, Florian B.
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm695152e2
发表时间：
2021-01-01
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
--
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm7034e3
发表时间：
2021-08-27
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Nanduri S;Pilishvili T;Derado G;Soe MM;Dollard P;Wu H;Li Q;Bagchi S;Dubendris H;Link-Gelles R;Jernigan JA;Budnitz D;Bell J;Benin A;Shang N;Edwards JR;Verani JR;Schrag SJ
通讯作者：
Schrag SJ