A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework
A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework
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DOI：
10.1186/s41118-020-00094-3
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发表时间：
2020-09-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Minello, Alessandra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Vignoli, Daniele;Guetto, Raffaele;Minello, Alessandra
在大衰退之后，整个欧洲国家的生育率普遍和相对一致的下降，对我们对当代低生育率模式的认识构成了严重的挑战。在本文中，我们认为生育决策不仅仅是“过去的统计阴影”，并提出了叙事框架，这是一种研究经济不确定性与生育之间关系的新方法。这一框架提出，个人的行为是根据或不顾不确定性，基于他们对未来的叙述-嵌入社会元素及其相互作用的想象未来。我们还假设，未来的个人叙事是由社会化代理人(包括父母和同龄人)产生的“共享叙事”以及由媒体和其他强大的舆论形成者产生的叙事塑造的。最后，在这个框架内，我们从定性和定量的角度提出了几种经验策略，包括一种实验方法，用于评估未来叙事在生育决策中的作用。
The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.