Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world
Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world
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DOI：
10.1002/grl.50340
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发表时间：
2013-05-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hendy, E. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Couce, E.;Irvine, P. J.;Hendy, E. J.
预计持续的人为二氧化碳排放将进一步提高海洋表面温度和加剧海洋酸化，从而影响热带珊瑚礁。虽然地球工程通过太阳辐射管理（SRM）可能会减轻温度上升，OA将持续存在，提出了重要的问题，不同的压力组合的影响。我们应用统计生物气候包络模型，以项目的变化，在浅水热带珊瑚礁栖息地作为一个单一的生态位（不解决生物多样性或社区组成）在各种代表性的浓度途径和SRM的情况下，直到2070年。我们预测，在净人为辐射强迫>= 3.0 W/m（2）的情况下，以印度-太平洋暖池为中心的栖息地适宜性将大幅下降。珊瑚礁的近期主要风险是海表温度升高;低于3 W/m（2）的条件相当有利，即使通过SRM实现持续的OA。“最佳”缓解发生在1.5 W/m（2），因为热带SST在完全地质工程（即，工业化前全球平均温度）世界。
Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of solar radiation management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various representative concentration pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of >= 3.0 W/m(2). The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3W/m(2) reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. "Optimal" mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m(2) because tropical SSTs overcool in a fully geoengineered (i.e., preindustrial global mean temperature) world.