Strategy for Multiobjective Transit Signal Priority with Prediction of Bus Dwell Time at Stops
Strategy for Multiobjective Transit Signal Priority with Prediction of Bus Dwell Time at Stops
复制标题
预测公交车停靠时间的多目标公交信号优先策略
DOI：
10.3141/2488-02
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Bao, Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ding, Jian;Yang, Min;Bao, Yu
公交信号优先是改善公交服务的重要方面。然而，公交车停留时间对TSP的影响往往被忽视，很少有研究者提出一种TSP策略，预测公交车停留时间，然后实施公交优先。本研究的重点是预测的公交车停留时间，其中定义了公交车到达交叉口的时间，随后建立了一个多目标TSP策略，使用该预测。以常州市快速公交2号线为例，提出一种基于自回归积分移动平均和支持向量机的混合模型来预测公交车的停留时间。其次，多目标TSP，实时平均乘客延误，最大排队长度，和废气排放作为其优化目标，通过使用模糊折衷方法求解。最后，利用微观模拟软件VISSIM对该策略进行了评价。仿真结果表明，该预测模型能有效降低BRT交叉口延误、停车率和尾气排放。此外，更高的交通流量对应于通过这一战略实现的更好的效益。此外，一般车辆交通的延误、排队长度和废气排放将得到有效控制。研究结果可为交通管理者制定合理的信号配时策略，提高交叉口的运行效率和环境质量提供参考。
Transit signal priority (TSP) is a vital aspect of the improvement of transit service. However, the effect of bus dwell time on TSP is often neglected, and few researchers have proposed a TSP strategy that predicts the bus dwell time and then implements bus priority. This study focused on the prediction of bus dwell time, which defined the bus arrival time at the intersection, and subsequently established a multiobjective TSP strategy that uses that prediction. The data extracted from the Changzhou, China, bus rapid transit (BRT) Line 2 were used to propose a hybrid model based on the autoregressive integrated moving average and the support vector machine to predict the dwell time. Next, the multiobjective TSP, with the real-time average passenger delay, the maximum queue length, and the exhaust emissions as its optimization objectives, was solved through the use of the fuzzy compromise approach. Finally, the strategy was evaluated with the microscopic simulation software VISSIM. The findings demonstrated that the prediction model produced satisfactory results, and the simulation results suggested that the proposed strategy could significantly reduce the intersection delay, the stop rate, and the exhaust emissions of BRT. Moreover, higher traffic flows corresponded to better benefits being achieved through this strategy. In addition, the delay, the queue length, and the exhaust emissions of general vehicle traffic would be effectively controlled. The findings of this study could be helpful to traffic managers in the development of appropriate signal timing strategies and the enhancement of operating efficiency and environmental quality at intersections.