The climate change beliefs fallacy: the influence of climate change beliefs on the perceived consequences of climate change
The climate change beliefs fallacy: the influence of climate change beliefs on the perceived consequences of climate change
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DOI：
10.1080/13669877.2020.1749114
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发表时间：
2020-04-06
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Siegrist, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hoogendoorn, Gea;Suetterlin, Bernadette;Siegrist, Michael
尽管科学界对气候变化的人为原因达成了一致，但公众对气候变化的原因持有不同的看法。有些人认为气候变化是由自然过程引起的，而另一些人则认为是由人类活动引起的。人们对气候变化原因的信念驱动着他们的风险认知和缓解行为，而这种信念不容易改变。因此，了解这些信念如何塑造人们对气候变化后果的看法至关重要。我们发现，关于气候变化原因的信念可能导致对气候变化可能后果的不同看法。那些认为气候变化是由人类活动而不是自然过程造成的人认为2017年飓风的后果比那些认为气候变化是由自然过程造成的人更糟糕，也造成了更多的痛苦。这些结果表明了一个谬误，因为受飓风影响的人和动物的痛苦并不取决于这些飓风的原因，而是取决于所造成的损害。关于交流，重要的是将目前可观察到的气候变化可能造成的事件与人类行为联系起来，因为这样做可以提高人们对人为气候变化后果严重性的认识，从而也可能提高他们参与缓解行为和预防措施的意愿。
Despite scientific agreement about the anthropogenic cause of climate change, the general public holds different beliefs regarding the causes of climate change. Some believe climate change to be caused by natural processes, while others believe it to be caused by human activities. People's beliefs regarding the causes of climate change drive both their risk perception and their mitigation behavior, and such beliefs are not easy to alter. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how these beliefs shape people's perception of the consequences of climate change. We find that beliefs regarding the causes of climate change can lead to different perceptions of the possible consequences of climate change. People who believed climate change to be caused by human activities rather than by natural processes perceived the consequences of the 2017 hurricanes to be worse, as well as to cause more suffering, than people who believed climate change to be caused by natural processes. These results suggest a fallacy, since the suffering of people and animals affected by hurricanes does not depend on the causes of those hurricanes, but rather on the damage that is caused. With regard to communication, it is important to link the currently observable events possible caused by climate change to human behavior, since doing so may increase people's awareness of the severity of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and, thus, possibly also their willingness to engage in mitigation behavior and prevention measures.