Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings
Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125003
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Matthews, H. Damon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MacDougall, Andrew H.;Zickfeld, Kirsten;Matthews, H. Damon
累积二氧化碳排放量与近地表温度变化之间的接近正比关系可用于定义碳预算：与选定的“安全”温度变化阈值相关的可燃烧的有限碳量。在这里，我们评估了这种碳收支对永久冻土碳动态和非co2强迫变化的敏感性。升温2.0℃的碳预算从仅考虑二氧化碳强迫时的1320 Pg C减少到考虑永久冻土碳反馈以及其他人为对气候变化的贡献时的810 Pg C。我们还研究了超过和回到变暖目标后的净碳预算。也就是说，在人为地从大气中去除二氧化碳以使气候冷却到选定的温度目标后，在变暖目标的时间点上恢复的净累积二氧化碳排放量。这些超调净碳预算始终小于传统碳预算。总体碳预算一直是将气候变化的主要原因与气候变化的影响联系起来的一个强大而简单的概念框架。
The near proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and change in near surface temperature can be used to define a carbon budget: a finite quantity of carbon that can be burned associated with a chosen 'safe' temperature change threshold. Here we evaluate the sensitivity of this carbon budget to permafrost carbon dynamics and changes in non-CO2 forcings. The carbon budget for 2.0 degrees C of warming is reduced from 1320 Pg C when considering only forcing from CO2 to 810 Pg C when considering permafrost carbon feedbacks as well as other anthropogenic contributions to climate change. We also examined net carbon budgets following an overshoot of and return to a warming target. That is, the net cumulative CO2 emissions at the point in time a warming target is restored following artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere to cool the climate back to a chosen temperature target. These overshoot net carbon budgets are consistently smaller than the conventional carbon budgets. Overall carbon budgets persist as a robust and simple conceptual framework to relate the principle cause of climate change to the impacts of climate change.