Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects
Natural selection and the predictability of evolution in Timema stick insects
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aap9125
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发表时间：
2018-02-16
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Gompert, Zach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nosil, Patrik;Villoutreix, Romain;Gompert, Zach
预测进化仍然很困难。我们利用 25 年的现场数据、实验和基因组学研究了竹节虫神秘的身体颜色和图案的进化。我们发现，当进化涉及多个选择因素和环境条件的不确定性之间的平衡时，比涉及导致一致的来回波动的反馈循环时更难以预测。具体来说，颜色变形频率的变化随着时间的推移是可以适度预测的（r(2) = 0.14），并由复杂的选择机制和每年的气候波动驱动。相反，由于负频率相关选择 (r(2) = 0.86)，模式变形频率的时间变化是高度可预测的。然而，对于这两个特征，自然选择驱动围绕动态平衡的进化，为该过程提供了一定的可预测性。
Predicting evolution remains difficult. We studied the evolution of cryptic body coloration and pattern in a stick insect using 25 years of field data, experiments, and genomics. We found that evolution is more difficult to predict when it involves a balance between multiple selective factors and uncertainty in environmental conditions than when it involves feedback loops that cause consistent back-and-forth fluctuations. Specifically, changes in color-morph frequencies are modestly predictable through time (r(2) = 0.14) and driven by complex selective regimes and yearly fluctuations in climate. In contrast, temporal changes in pattern-morph frequencies are highly predictable due to negative frequency-dependent selection (r(2) = 0.86). For both traits, however, natural selection drives evolution around a dynamic equilibrium, providing some predictability to the process.