Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0306738101
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发表时间：
2004-03-23
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Betancourt, JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McCabe, GJ;Palecki, MA;Betancourt, JL
太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和大西洋年代际涛动(AMO)是美国近十年干旱频率的时空变化的一半以上(52%)。干旱频率的另外22%的变化与干旱发生的正负趋势的复杂空间格局有关，可能与北半球气温上升或其他一些单向气候趋势有关。最近的干旱对连续的美国造成了广泛的影响(1996,1999-2002年)，与北大西洋变暖(正AMO)和东北和热带太平洋降温(负PDO)有关。干旱频率的大部分长期可预测性可能存在于北大西洋的数十年行为中。如果当前积极的北大西洋(温暖的北大西洋)条件持续到未来十年，我们建议两种可能的干旱情景，类似于1930年代(正PDO)和1950年代(负PDO)的大陆范围干旱模式。
More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.