An Economic Model of the World Oil Market
An Economic Model of the World Oil Market
复制标题
世界石油市场的经济模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
1974
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Kennedy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Kennedy
本文提出了世界石油市场的区域多商品经济模型。该模型的四个部门是原油生产、运输、炼油和产品消费。研究的地区包括美国、加拿大、拉丁美洲、欧洲、中东和非洲以及亚洲。在模型中，外生变量包括区域供需方程、精炼技术和政府政策变量。这些变量的范围为模型提供了足够的信息，以确定每个地区每种商品的消费、生产和价格水平、世界贸易流动模式以及每个地区的炼油厂资本结构和产出。垄断行为的后果——通过生产国卡特尔欧佩克实施——可以通过模拟出口税变化的影响来研究。该模型的使用表明，1973年末发生的原油价格上涨不太可能持续下去，因为最大的生产区域——波斯湾和北非——将面临在各个国家之间分配减少的产量水平的问题。
This paper presents a regional multicommodity economic model of the world oil market. The four sectors of the model are crude production, transportation, refining, and consumption of products. The regions studied are the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia. In the model the exogenous variables include the regional supply and demand equations, the technology of refining, and government policy variables. The scope of these variables gives the model sufficient information to determine the levels of consumption, production, and price for each commodity in each region, the pattern of world trade flows, and the refinery capital structure and output in each region. The consequences of monopolistic behavior -- implemented through the producing country cartel, OPEC -- can be studied through the simulation of the effects of changes in the export tax. Use of this model shows that the price increases for crude oil which occurred in late 1973 are not likely to persist because the largest producing region -- the Persian Gulf and North Africa -- would have the problem of allocating reduced production levels among the individual countries.