Dynamic, downstream‐propagating thermal vulnerability in a mountain stream network: Implications for biodiversity in the face of climate change
Dynamic, downstream‐propagating thermal vulnerability in a mountain stream network: Implications for biodiversity in the face of climate change
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山间溪流网络中动态的下游传播热脆弱性：气候变化对生物多样性的影响
DOI：
10.1002/lno.12264
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Ruhi, Albert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leathers, Kyle;Herbst, David;Safeeq, Mohammad;Ruhi, Albert
随着气候变化持续增加高海拔生态系统的气温，了解水生栖息地对变暖脆弱性的控制和规模变得至关重要。在这里，我们使用嵌套的高频传感器阵列和先进的时间序列模型来研究内华达山脉流域模型的热脆弱性的时空变化。河流对大气变暖的热敏感性在一年中波动很大，在春季和夏季达到顶峰，此时炎热的天气对无脊椎动物群落的威胁最大。河段尺度（~ 50 m）最能反映夏季热状态的变化。海拔高度、流量和电导率是影响流域夏季水温的重要因素，但上游水温是最重要的驱动因素，支持了网络下游的级联变暖。最后，我们使用我们估计的夏季热敏感性和夏季气温的缩减预测来预测本世纪末的河流变暖，届时极端干旱年（如2020-2021年）将成为常态。研究发现，在高排放情景下，代表性浓度路径（RCP） 8.5可能会损失25.5%的冷水栖息地（或在缓解RCP 4.5情景下损失7.9%）。这一估计减少表明，在以前的冷水生境中，27.2%的大型溪流无脊椎动物生物多样性将受到压力或威胁（在缓解情景下为11.9%）。我们的定量方法可转移到具有空间复制时间序列的其他流域，并说明了考虑山间溪流在空间和时间上对变暖脆弱性变化的重要性。这种方法可以通过帮助确定和潜在地减轻峰值脆弱性的地点和时间窗口，为流域保护工作提供信息。
As climate change continues to increase air temperature in high‐altitude ecosystems, it has become critical to understand the controls and scales of aquatic habitat vulnerability to warming. Here, we used a nested array of high‐frequency sensors, and advances in time‐series models, to examine spatiotemporal variation in thermal vulnerability in a model Sierra Nevada watershed. Stream thermal sensitivity to atmospheric warming fluctuated strongly over the year and peaked in spring and summer—when hot days threaten invertebrate communities most. The reach scale (~ 50 m) best captured variation in summer thermal regimes. Elevation, discharge, and conductivity were important correlates of summer water temperature across reaches, but upstream water temperature was the paramount driver—supporting that cascading warming occurs downstream in the network. Finally, we used our estimated summer thermal sensitivity and downscaled projections of summer air temperature to forecast end‐of‐the‐century stream warming, when extreme drought years like 2020–2021 become the norm. We found that 25.5% of cold‐water habitat may be lost under high‐emissions scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 (or 7.9% under mitigated RCP 4.5). This estimated reduction suggests that 27.2% of stream macroinvertebrate biodiversity (11.9% under the mitigated scenario) will be stressed or threatened in what was previously cold‐water habitat. Our quantitative approach is transferrable to other watersheds with spatially replicated time series and illustrates the importance of considering variation in the vulnerability of mountain streams to warming over both space and time. This approach may inform watershed conservation efforts by helping identify, and potentially mitigate, sites and time windows of peak vulnerability.
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