A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq

A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq
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叛乱的动态模型：以伊拉克战争为例

DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Simmons
C. Simmons
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
Larry R. Blank;C. Enomoto;Douglas Gegax;T. Mcguckin;C. Simmons

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本文用一个微分方程组来描述伊拉克的叛乱。该系统有四种可能的结果或情况：(1)以美国为首的联军规模扩大，叛乱分子发动袭击的次数增加。(2)以美国为首的联军规模缩小，叛乱分子发动袭击的次数减少。(3)以美国为首的联军规模扩大，叛乱袭击次数减少。(4)以美国为首的联军规模缩小，叛乱袭击次数增加。哪个案件相关取决于以美国为首的联军和叛乱分子的征兵率以及双方的战斗力。文中提供了政策含义。
This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system has four possible outcomes or cases: (1) The U.S.-led coalition increases in size and the number of attacks by the insurgents increases. (2) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of attacks by insurgents decreases. (3) The size of the U.S.-led coalition increases and the number of insurgent attacks decreases. (4) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of insurgent attacks increases. Which case is relevant depends on the recruitment rates of the U.S.-led coalition and insurgents as well as the combat effectiveness of both sides. Policy implications are provided.