Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.
Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms6752
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发表时间：
2014-12-08
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Lenton, Timothy M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boulton, Chris A.;Allison, Lesley C.;Lenton, Timothy M.
大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）在不同复杂程度的模式中表现出两种稳定状态。不同AMOC状态之间的变化被认为在过去的气候突变中发挥了作用，但气候系统与未来AMOC崩溃阈值的接近程度尚不清楚。在低和中等复杂程度的气候模式中发现了AMOC崩溃前临界减速的一般预警信号。在这里，我们表明AMOC崩溃的早期预警信号存在于一个完全耦合的大气-海洋环流模式中，并受到淡水管道实验的影响。lag-1自相关和方差增加信号的统计显著性随纬度的变化而变化。他们在AMOC崩溃前给出了长达250年的预警，而在大约550年的监测之后。未来的工作需要澄清当AMOC崩溃接近时驱动临界减速的动力学机制。人们普遍希望能够预测大西洋经向翻转环流的潜在崩溃，但仍存在问题。在这里，作者使用一个完全耦合的大气-海洋环流模式，表明可以提前250年检测到早期预警信号。
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. The ability to predict a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is widely desired, but problematic. Here, using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation mode, the authors show that early warning signs can be detected 250 years in advance.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Feng, Qing Yi;Viebahn, Jan P.;Dijkstra, Henk A.
通讯作者：
Dijkstra, Henk A.
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Köhl, A
通讯作者：
Köhl, A
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Brock, WA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0802430105
发表时间：
2008-09-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Dakos, Vasilis;Scheffer, Marten;Held, Hermann
通讯作者：
Held, Hermann
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Delworth, TL;Mann, ME
通讯作者：
Mann, ME