The nonlinear impacts of industrial structure on China's energy intensity
The nonlinear impacts of industrial structure on China's energy intensity
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2014.02.106
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lin, Boqiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Ke;Lin, Boqiang
调整产业结构是中国政府降低能源强度的关键。本文基于中国产业结构的两次V型演变和能源强度下降率的非线性波动，建立了中国能源强度与经济增长的非线性门限协整模型，并对中国能源强度与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析（能源强度），IS（产业结构）、技术（技术进步）和价格（能源价格），以研究是否，以及在何种条件下，产业结构有利于降低能源强度。结果表明，当IS大于或小于40.435%时，IS对EI的影响不同。具体而言，在1980-1982年，1995-1997年和2003-2008年，IS和PRICE对El产生了积极影响，但在1983-1994年，1998-2002年和2009年产生了负面影响。1980-2009年，技术进步（包括资本体现的技术进步和希克斯中性的技术进步）对经济增长产生了负面影响。因此，只有当产业结构指数小于40.435%时，产业结构才对能源强度产生结构性红利或负效应。因此，中国应降低工业增加值占GDP的比重，刺激技术进步，不断降低能源强度。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Adjusting industrial structural is crucial for Chinese government's effort to reduce energy intensity. This paper, based on the fact that the Chinese industrial structure's two V-pattern evolutions and the nonlinear fluctuation of the declining rate of energy intensity, specifies a nonlinear threshold cointegration model for El (energy intensity), IS (industrial structure), TECH (technological progress), and PRICE (energy price) in order to investigate whether, and under which conditions, industrial structure is beneficial for reducing energy intensity. Results show that IS has different effects on EI when IS is greater or smaller than 40.435%. Specifically, in 1980-1982, 1995-1997, and 2003-2008, IS and PRICE produced positive effects on El, but produced negative effects in 1983-1994, 1998-2002, and 2009. TECH, including both capital embodied technological progress and Hicks-neutral technological progress, produced a negative effect on El in 1980-2009. Thus, the industrial structure has a structural bonus or negative effects on energy intensity only when IS is smaller than 40.435%. Therefore, China should reduce the ratio of industry added value to the GDP and stimulate technological progress to continuously reduce energy intensity. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.