Predicting the risk of locoregional recurrence after early breast cancer: an external validation of the Dutch INFLUENCE-nomogram with clinical cancer registry data from Germany
Predicting the risk of locoregional recurrence after early breast cancer: an external validation of the Dutch INFLUENCE-nomogram with clinical cancer registry data from Germany
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00432-019-02904-4
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Siesling, Sabine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Voelkel, Vinzenz;Draeger, Teresa;Siesling, Sabine
目的乳腺癌治疗后随访旨在早期发现局部区域乳腺癌复发（LRR），改善患者预后。通过估计个体的5年复发风险，荷兰影响图可以帮助卫生专业人员和患者制定个性化的基于风险的随访途径。本研究的目的是验证非荷兰患者的预测工具。材料和方法该外部验证的数据来自德国南部的一个大型临床癌症登记处，涵盖110万人口。2000年至2012年间诊断的早期乳腺癌根治性切除患者纳入分析（n=6520）。对于每个人，通过影响图估计个体lrr风险。通过使用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验和c统计量比较估计和观察到的lrr概率来检验其预测能力。结果在德国验证队列中，2.8%的患者在初次手术后5年内发生LRR （n=184）。而影响图通常低估了德国患者的实际lrr风险(p
PurposeFollow-up after breast cancer treatment aims for an early detection of locoregional breast cancer recurrences (LRR) to improve the patients' outcome. By estimating individual's 5-year recurrence-risks, the Dutch INFLUENCE-nomogram can assist health professionals and patients in developing personalized risk-based follow-up pathways. The objective of this study is to validate the prediction tool on non-Dutch patients.Material and methodsData for this external validation derive from a large clinical cancer registry in southern Germany, covering a population of 1.1million. Patients with curative resection of early-stage breast cancer, diagnosed between 2000 and 2012, were included in the analysis (n=6520). For each of them, an individual LRR-risk was estimated by the INFLUENCE-nomogram. Its predictive ability was tested by comparing estimated and observed LRR-probabilities using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and C-statistics.ResultsIn the German validation-cohort, 2.8% of the patients developed an LRR within 5years after primary surgery (n=184). While the INFLUENCE-nomogram generally underestimates the actual LRR-risk of the German patients (p