Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach.
Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach.
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DOI：
10.1017/s1368980021004833
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发表时间：
2022-06
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Diez Roux AV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Langellier BA;Stankov I;Hammond RA;Bilal U;Auchincloss AH;Barrientos-Gutierrez T;Cardoso LO;Diez Roux AV
开发一个模拟框架，以评估税收、营养警告标签和广告水平的组合如何影响拉丁美洲国家超加工食品的购买，并了解政策是加强还是减少了超加工食品消费中预先存在的社会差距。我们开发了一个基于代理的仿真模型，使用国际证据的影响价格，营养警告标签和广告的UPF购买。我们估计了政策的影响，在代表两个阶段的“社会转型”的情况下，在UPF购买：（1）转型前的情况下，UPF购买是高收入家庭，类似于在墨西哥的模式;（2）转型后的情况下，UPF购买是最高的低收入家庭，类似于在智利的模式。人口的1000个人代理人的年龄，收入，教育程度和UPF购买类似的成年妇女在墨西哥。在过渡前和过渡后的情景中，20%的税收将使购买量相对于基线减少24%，这一效果与营养警告标签政策的效果相似。广告增加或减少50%的影响相对较小.营养警告标签在教育程度较高的人群中最为有效。在过渡前的情况下，贴上标签减少了不平等（即在最高社会经济群体中购买最高UPF），但在过渡后的情况下扩大了不平等。可以利用有效的政策杠杆来减少购买UPF，但政策制定者应预期，公平影响将因购买UPF的现有社会模式而异。
To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption. We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing. We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the ‘social transition’ in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile. A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico. A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario. Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.