An eddy kinetic energy view of physical and dynamical processes in distinct forecast scenarios for the extratropical transition of two tropical cyclones
An eddy kinetic energy view of physical and dynamical processes in distinct forecast scenarios for the extratropical transition of two tropical cyclones
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-13-00219.1
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发表时间：
2014-08
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
J. Keller;S. Jones;P. Harr
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Keller;S. Jones;P. Harr
摘要2008年飓风汉娜和2009年台风彩云的热带外转捩在欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）的包围预报系统（EPS）中产生了多种预报情景。主要的发展情景提取两个集合预报的ET之前，这些热带风暴的初始化，使用一个模糊聚类分析。过渡的热带气旋的作用及其对中纬度气流的影响，在不同的预测方案进行了检查的涡动动能收支的下游斜压发展的框架进行分析。这个预算突出了来源和汇的涡动动能从过渡热带气旋或邻近的上游中纬度流功能。通过比较两个热带气旋ET的几种预报方案的预算，过渡风暴在下游地区的发展的作用进行了研究。不...
AbstractThe extratropical transition (ET) of Hurricane Hanna (2008) and Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009) caused a variety of forecast scenarios in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The dominant development scenarios are extracted for two ensemble forecasts initialized prior to the ET of those tropical storms, using an EOF and fuzzy clustering analysis. The role of the transitioning tropical cyclone and its impact on the midlatitude flow in the distinct forecast scenarios is examined by conducting an analysis of the eddy kinetic energy budget in the framework of downstream baroclinic development. This budget highlights sources and sinks of eddy kinetic energy emanating from the transitioning tropical cyclone or adjacent upstream midlatitude flow features. By comparing the budget for several forecast scenarios for the ET of each of the two tropical cyclones, the role of the transitioning storms on the development in downstream regions is investigated. Di...