Urban Runoff Simulation: How Do Land Use/Cover Change Patterning and Geospatial Data Quality Impact Model Outcome?
Urban Runoff Simulation: How Do Land Use/Cover Change Patterning and Geospatial Data Quality Impact Model Outcome?
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DOI：
10.3390/w12102715
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Ji, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elaji, Amnah;Ji, Wei
随着全球城市化的加剧，卫星图像和其他类型的地理空间数据已被广泛用于城市景观变化研究，其中包括环境建模，以评估变化对城市流域的影响。对于城市水文模拟，作为本研究的重点，提出了几个相关的研究问题：（1）径流模拟对土地利用/土地覆盖变化模式的敏感性如何？(2)输入数据质量如何影响模拟结果？(3)集成和综合各种形式的地理空间数据进行径流建模的有效性如何？这些问题在以前的相关研究中没有得到充分或充分的解决。为了回答这些问题作为研究目标，我们进行了空间土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化分析和城市径流模拟在蓝河流域在堪萨斯城大都市区2003年至2017年。在这项研究中，开发的方法，将水文工程中心水文模拟系统（HEC-HMS）模型与遥感，地理信息系统（GIS）和雷达降雨数据。分析了数据质量对模型模拟结果的影响。结果表明，由于该地区城市化过程的时空异质性，2003年和2017年的模拟径流响应没有显著差异。虽然大都市区在过去几十年中经历了显着的城市发展，在研究期间的研究流域建设用地的收益是微不足道的。另一方面，植树造林活动增加的植被面积被农田和草地的减少所抵消。结果表明，提高空间数据分辨率并不一定或显着提高HEC-HMS模型的性能或结果。在这些条件下，在模拟中使用下一代天气雷达（NEXRAD）降雨数据提供了一个令人满意的拟合过程线的形状，峰值流量和时间校准后的努力，但他们可能会高估降雨量相比，仪表数据。这项研究表明，开发的方法，综合卫星，GIS和雷达降雨数据在水文模拟是有效的，有用的，将城市景观和降水变化数据在流域级的动态洪水风险评估。
With the increase in global urbanization, satellite imagery and other types of geospatial data have been extensively used in urban landscape change research, which includes environmental modeling in order to assess the change impact on urban watersheds. For urban hydrological modeling, as a focus of this study, several related research questions are raised: (1) How sensitive are runoff simulation to land use and land cover change patterning? (2) How will input data quality impact the simulation outcome? (3) How effective is integrating and synthesizing various forms of geospatial data for runoff modeling? These issues were not fully or adequately addressed in previous related studies. With the aim of answering these questions as research objectives, we conducted a spatial land use and land cover (LULC) change analysis and an urban runoff simulation in the Blue River watershed in the Kansas City metropolitan area between 2003 and 2017. In this study, approaches were developed to incorporate the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model with remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and radar rainfall data. The impact of data quality on the model simulation outcome was also analyzed. The results indicate that there are no significant differences between simulated runoff responses in the two study years (2003 and 2017) due to spatial and temporal heterogeneity of urbanization processes in the region. While the metropolitan area has been experiencing remarkable urban development in the past few decades, the gain in built-up land in the study watershed during the study period is insignificant. On the other hand, the gain in vegetated land caused by forestation activities is offset by a decrease in farmland and grassland. The results show that increasing spatial data resolution does not necessarily or noticeably improve the HEC-HMS model performance or outcomes. Under these conditions, using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) rainfall data in the simulation provides a satisfactory fit in hydrographs' shapes, peak discharge amounts and time after calibration efforts, while they may overestimate the amount of rainfall as compared with gauge data. This study shows that the developed approach of synthesizing satellite, GIS, and radar rainfall data in hydrological modeling is effective and useful for incorporating urban landscape and precipitation change data in dynamic flood risk assessment at a watershed level.