Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France
Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138817
复制
发表时间：
2020-08-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
2019年12月底，中国武汉市出现了2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）。截至2020年4月15日，全球确诊COVID-19病例190万例，其中死亡12万例。迫切需要监测和预测COVID-19的流行情况，以更有效地控制这一传播。时间序列模型在预测COVID-19疫情的影响和采取必要措施应对这一危机方面具有重要意义。本研究采用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测欧洲疫情最严重国家意大利、西班牙和法国的COVID-19流行趋势。2020年2月21日至2020年4月15日COVID-19流行数据收集自世界卫生组织网站。利用不同的ARIMA参数建立了多个ARIMA模型。选择MAPE值最低的ARIMA（0,2,1）、ARIMA（1,2,0）和ARIMA（0,2,1）模型分别为意大利、西班牙和法国的最佳模型（4.7520、5.8486和5.6335）。本研究表明，ARIMA模型适用于预测未来COVID-19的流行情况。分析结果有助于了解疫情的趋势，并对这些地区的流行病学阶段有所了解。此外，意大利、西班牙和法国的疫情趋势预测也可为其他国家的疫情预防和政策制定提供参考。(C) 2020 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
At the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appeared in Wuhan city, China. As of April 15, 2020, >1.9 million COVID-19 cases were confirmed worldwide, including >120,000 deaths. There is an urgent need to monitor and predict COVID-19 prevalence to control this spread more effectively. Time series models are significant in predicting the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and taking the necessary measures to respond to this crisis. In this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 prevalence of Italy, Spain, and France, the most affected countries of Europe. The prevalence data of COVID-19 from 21 February 2020 to 15 April 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization website. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (0,2,1), ARIMA (1,2,0), and ARIMA (0,2,1) models with the lowest MAPE values (4.7520, 5.8486, and 5.6335) were selected as the best models for Italy, Spain, and France, respectively. This study shows that ARIMA models are suitable for predicting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the future. The results of the analysis can shed light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and give an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. Besides, the prediction of COVID-19 prevalence trends of Italy, Spain, and France can help take precautions and policy formulation for this epidemic in other countries. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.