Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records
Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records
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DOI：
10.1029/2005jc003229
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发表时间：
2006-09-12
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Holgate, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jevrejeva, S.;Grinsted, A.;Holgate, S.
[ 1]利用蒙特卡罗奇异谱分析（MC-SSA）方法对PSMSL数据库中的海平面时间序列进行了分析。我们去除了2 - 30年的准周期振荡，并确定了12个大海洋区域的非线性长期趋势。我们对1993年至2000年期间全球海平面趋势的估计为2.4 +/- 1.0毫米/年，与TOPEX/Poseidon高度计测量计算的2.6 +/- 0.7毫米/年海平面上升相当。然而，我们表明，在过去的100年中，2.5 +/- 1.0毫米/年的速度发生在1920年和1945年之间，很可能是20世纪90年代一样大，并导致平均海平面上升48毫米。以及利用站的地理位置的新颖的“虚拟站”方法。结果表明，一个地区不能充分代表一个简单的平均曲线与标准误差，假设所有的站是独立的，多年的周期内的区域是非常重要的。此外，大部分区域间不匹配误差是由于全球海平面的多年周期，这限制了简单方法准确捕获海平面的能力。我们证明，在过去的50年中，在大多数海洋盆地的海平面记录在2 - 30年期间的变化增加。
[ 1] We analyze the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database of sea level time series using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis (MC-SSA). We remove 2 - 30 year quasi-periodic oscillations and determine the nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions. Our global sea level trend estimate of 2.4 +/- 1.0 mm/yr for the period from 1993 to 2000 is comparable with the 2.6 +/- 0.7 mm/yr sea level rise calculated from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements. However, we show that over the last 100 years the rate of 2.5 +/- 1.0 mm/yr occurred between 1920 and 1945, is likely to be as large as the 1990s, and resulted in a mean sea level rise of 48 mm. We evaluate errors in sea level using two independent approaches, the robust bi-weight mean and variance, and a novel "virtual station'' approach that utilizes geographic locations of stations. Results suggest that a region cannot be adequately represented by a simple mean curve with standard error, assuming all stations are independent, as multiyear cycles within regions are very significant. Additionally, much of the between-region mismatch errors are due to multiyear cycles in the global sea level that limit the ability of simple means to capture sea level accurately. We demonstrate that variability in sea level records over periods 2 - 30 years has increased during the past 50 years in most ocean basins.