Estimate of the total volume of Svalbard glaciers, and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, using new regionally based scaling relationships
Estimate of the total volume of Svalbard glaciers, and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, using new regionally based scaling relationships
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使用新的基于区域的比例关系估计斯瓦尔巴冰川的总体积及其对海平面上升的潜在贡献
作者：
A. Martín‐Español;F. Navarro;J. Otero;J. Lapazaran;M. Błaszczyk
摘要我们提出了一组新的斯瓦尔巴群岛冰川的体积比例关系，这些关系是从60个体积-面积对样本中得出的。冰川体积是从探地雷达(GPR)提取的冰厚度测量中计算出来的，这些测量是为本研究从不同来源汇编的。在最低交叉验证误差方面，最精确的比例模型是使用多变量方法获得的，其中除了冰川面积外，冰川长度和海拔范围也被用作预测因子。使用这种多变量尺度方法，结合斯瓦尔巴群岛和扬马延的伦道夫冰川清单3.2版，我们得到了6700±835千米的区域体积估计，或17±2毫米的海平面当量(SLE)。这一结果位于最近公布的估计值的中低端范围内，这些估计值最小为13 mm，最小为24 mm。我们评估了尺度指数对冰川特征如大小、宽高比和平均坡度的敏感性，发现陡坡和环状冰川的体积对冰川面积的变化不是很敏感。
Abstract We present a set of new volume scaling relationships specific to Svalbard glaciers, derived from a sample of 60 volume–area pairs. Glacier volumes are computed from ground-penetrating radar (GPR)-retrieved ice thickness measurements, which have been compiled from different sources for this study. The most precise scaling models, in terms of lowest cross-validation errors, are obtained using a multivariate approach where, in addition to glacier area, glacier length and elevation range are also used as predictors. Using this multivariate scaling approach, together with the Randolph Glacier Inventory V3.2 for Svalbard and Jan Mayen, we obtain a regional volume estimate of 6700 ± 835 km3, or 17 ± 2 mm of sea-level equivalent (SLE). This result lies in the mid- to low range of recently published estimates, which show values as varied as 13 and 24 mm SLE. We assess the sensitivity of the scaling exponents to glacier characteristics such as size, aspect ratio and average slope, and find that the volume of steep-slope and cirque-type glaciers is not very sensitive to changes in glacier area.