Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period
Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period
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货币主权、汇率和资本管制：两次世界大战期间的三难困境
DOI：
10.2307/30035887
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Alan M. Taylor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Obstfeld;Jay C. Shambaugh;Alan M. Taylor
两次世界大战之间的标志是经典金本位制度的终结，世界经济的宏观经济出现了新的混乱。两次世界大战之间的混乱通常与与开放经济三难困境约束不一致的政策有关——政策制定者无法同时追求固定汇率、开放资本市场和自主的货币政策。前两个目标是1914年前秩序的关键，然而，随着日益民主的政治面临参与国内宏观经济管理的压力，货币挂钩或资本自由流动必须做出让步。这种历史分析叙事令人信服——如果是真的，将对当今世界产生重大影响——但在经验上存在争议。我们将理论和经验应用于两次世界大战之间的数据，并为三难困境的逻辑找到强有力的支持。因此，在瞬息万变的政治和经济环境中无法采取一致的政策，似乎是理解两次世界大战之间危机的关键，同样的制约因素今天仍然适用。
The interwar period was marked by the end of the classical gold standard regime and new levels of macroeconomic disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the openeconomy trilemma-the inability of policymakers simultaneously to pursue a fixed exchange rate, open capital markets, and autonomous monetary policy. The first two objectives were linchpins of the pre-1914 order As increasingly democratic polities faced pressures to engage in domestic macroeconomic management, however, either currency pegs or freedom of capital movements had to yield. This historical analytic narrative is compelling – with significant ramifications for today's world, if true – but empirically controversial. We apply theory and empirics to the interwar data and find strong support for the logic of the trilemma. Thus, an inability to pursue consistent policies in a rapidly changing political and economic environment appears central to an understanding of the interwar crises, and the same constraints still apply today.
书评：肯尼思·摩尔 (Kenneth Moure)，《金本位幻觉》，法国、法国银行和国际金本位，1914-1939 年
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
経済学史学会年報 45号
影响因子：
--
作者：
矢後 和彦
通讯作者：
矢後 和彦