Response of Global Particulate-Matter-Related Mortality to Changes in Local Precursor Emissions
Response of Global Particulate-Matter-Related Mortality to Changes in Local Precursor Emissions
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.5b00873
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发表时间：
2015-04-07
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
van Donkelaar, Aaron
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lee, Colin J.;Martin, Randall V.;van Donkelaar, Aaron
最近的全球疾病负担评估估计，室外细颗粒物（PM2.5）是造成全球5%以上过早死亡的一个原因。PM2.5是由多种直接和间接、自然和人为过程产生的，这些过程使PM2.5的管理复杂化。本研究开发了一种概念验证方法来量化PM2.5前体排放变化对全球过早死亡的影响。利用GEOS-Chem化学输运模型，我们计算了全球与pm2.5相关的过早死亡率对前体气体（SO2、NO、NH3）和碳质气溶胶排放的敏感性。我们使用了卫星衍生的地面PM2.5数据集，分辨率约为10 × 10公里(2)，以便更好地将暴露与人口密度结合起来。我们使用GBD项目的暴露反应函数，在伴随计算中将死亡率与暴露联系起来。全球死亡率对当地人为排放变化的响应在空间上存在几个数量级的差异。东欧的氨和含碳气溶胶排放量每减少1千克公里（-2）年，死亡率降低幅度最大。东亚的次级无机源排放量减少10%，死亡率降低幅度最大。总的来说，减少10%的二氧化硫排放量是最有效的控制来源，但也存在区域例外。
Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) assessments estimated that outdoor fine-particulate matter (PM2.5) is a causal factor in over 5% of global premature deaths. PM2.5 is produced by a variety of direct and indirect, natural and anthropogenic processes that complicate PM2.5 management. This study develops a proof-of-concept method to quantify the effects on global premature mortality of changes to PM2.5 precursor emissions. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we calculated sensitivities of global PM2.5-related premature mortality to emissions of precursor gases (SO2, NO, NH3) and carbonaceous aerosols. We used a satellite-derived ground-level PM2.5 data set at approximately 10 x 10 km(2) resolution to better align the exposure with population density. We used exposureresponse functions from the GBD project to relate mortality to exposure in the adjoint calculation. The response of global mortality to changes in local anthropogenic emissions varied spatially by several orders of magnitude. The largest reductions in mortality for a 1 kg kM(-2) yr(-1) decrease in emissions were for ammonia and carbonaceous aerosols in Eastern Europe. The greatest reductions in mortality for a 10% decrease in emissions were found for secondary inorganic sources in East Asia. In general, a 10% decrease in SO2 emissions was the most effective source to control, but regional exceptions were found.