Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.
Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13366-1
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发表时间：
2003-05-17
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Snow RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hay SI;Were EC;Renshaw M;Noor AM;Ochola SA;Olusanmi I;Alipui N;Snow RW
我们的目的是评估季节性气候预报、气象条件监测和病例早期发现的结合是否有助于预防2002年肯尼亚西部高地的疟疾紧急情况。季节性气候预报没有预料到这场大雨。降雨量数据提供了及时可靠的早期预警;但每月对疟疾门诊病人的监测没有发出有效的警报，尽管它确实有助于确认基西中部和古查的正常降雨条件导致典型的复发性疫情，而南迪和凯里乔的异常降雨导致真正的疟疾流行。在高原地区管理疟疾，包括改进对每年重新爆发的疟疾的规划，并辅之以简单的全国性中央预警，是肯尼亚加强流行病防备的可行战略。
Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring of meteorological conditions, and early detection of cases could have helped to prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in the highlands of western Kenya. Seasonal climate forecasts did not anticipate the heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely and reliable early warnings; but monthly surveillance of malaria out-patients gave no effective alarm, though it did help to confirm that normal rainfall conditions in Kisii Central and Gucha led to typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional rainfall in Nandi and Kericho led to true malaria epidemics. Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya.