Nuclear War as a Global Catastrophic Risk
Nuclear War as a Global Catastrophic Risk
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核战争是一种全球灾难性风险
DOI：
10.1017/bca.2019.16
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
J. Scouras
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Scouras
摘要核战争显然是一种全球性的灾难性风险，但它并不像人们有时漫不经心地宣称的那样是一种事关生死存亡的风险。不幸的是，核战争风险的后果和可能性都高度不确定。特别是，对于包括以多个城市为目标的核战争来说，核冬天可能会导致更多的全球死亡，而不是更好地理解爆炸、即时辐射和尘埃的影响。电磁脉冲效应的范围可能从轻微的电气干扰到电网的完全崩溃，同样具有高度的不确定性。核战争可能性评估在很大程度上是基于直觉，从零到确定。尽管存在这些深刻的不确定性，但我们必须利用我们所掌握的知识来管理核战争的风险。用于评估减轻风险措施的效益-成本分析和其他结构化分析方法必须承认，我们往往甚至不知道许多拟议的办法(例如，削减核武库)是否会产生净的积极影响或消极影响。需要进行多学科研究，以便更好地了解核战争的后果和可能性，以及这两个风险组成部分之间的复杂关系，并预测减少风险办法的方向和程度。
Abstract Nuclear war is clearly a global catastrophic risk, but it is not an existential risk as is sometimes carelessly claimed. Unfortunately, the consequence and likelihood components of the risk of nuclear war are both highly uncertain. In particular, for nuclear wars that include targeting of multiple cities, nuclear winter may result in more fatalities across the globe than the better-understood effects of blast, prompt radiation, and fallout. Electromagnetic pulse effects, which could range from minor electrical disturbances to the complete collapse of the electric grid, are similarly highly uncertain. Nuclear war likelihood assessments are largely based on intuition, and they span the spectrum from zero to certainty. Notwithstanding these profound uncertainties, we must manage the risk of nuclear war with the knowledge we have. Benefit-cost analysis and other structured analytic methods applied to evaluate risk mitigation measures must acknowledge that we often do not even know whether many proposed approaches (e.g., reducing nuclear arsenals) will have a net positive or negative effect. Multidisciplinary studies are needed to better understand the consequences and likelihood of nuclear war and the complex relationship between these two components of risk, and to predict both the direction and magnitude of risk mitigation approaches.