Stratospheric ozone depletion at northern mid latitudes in the 21st century: The importance of future concentrations of greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane
Stratospheric ozone depletion at northern mid latitudes in the 21st century: The importance of future concentrations of greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2001gl014295
复制
发表时间：
2002-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
L. Randeniya;P. Vohralik;I. C. Plumb
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Randeniya;P. Vohralik;I. C. Plumb
有证据表明，大气中的卤素含量已经达到峰值，预计平流层臭氧水平将在本世纪恢复到1980年前的水平。然而，大气中的N2O浓度正在增加，导致平流层中的NOx水平增加。此外，近年来大气甲烷负荷的增长率有所下降，这表明甲烷排放量已经稳定下来。一个二维化学传输模式被用来计算2000年至2100年IPCC一系列情景下的平流层臭氧。该模型预测，在未来50年内，中纬度平流层臭氧将仅部分恢复到1980年前的水平，但随后将下降，主要原因是平流层NOx的增加。如果温室气体减排战略导致未来甲烷水平降低，预计2100年中纬度平流层臭氧水平将低于当前值，特别是在夏末和秋季。
There is evidence that the halogen loading of the atmosphere has peaked and stratospheric ozone levels are expected to recover to pre‐1980 levels this century. However, N2O concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing, resulting in increasing levels of NOx in the stratosphere. In addition, the growth rate in the atmospheric methane burden has declined in recent years, leading to the suggestion that methane emissions have stabilized. A 2‐D chemical transport model is used to calculate stratospheric ozone from 2000 to 2100 for a range of IPCC scenarios. The model predicts that mid‐latitude stratospheric ozone will recover only partially towards pre‐1980 levels over the next 50 years, but will then decline, largely due to increases in stratospheric NOx. If greenhouse gas mitigation strategies result in lower future methane levels, mid‐latitude stratospheric ozone levels in 2100 are predicted to be lower than current values, particularly in late summer and autumn.