Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China.
Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China.
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DOI：
10.2471/blt.20.258152
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhu H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Li J;Yuan P;Heffernan J;Zheng T;Ogden N;Sander B;Li J;Li Q;Bélair J;Kong JD;Aruffo E;Tan Y;Jin Z;Yu Y;Fan M;Cui J;Teng Z;Zhu H
设计2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在武汉的传播模型以及方舱医院（快速建成的方舱医院）对疫情控制的影响。我们使用武汉市卫生健康委员会官方网站上每日报告的 COVID-19 确诊病例、康复病例和死亡数据，构建了 COVID-19 疫情三个阶段的分区模型。我们整合了定点医院和方舱医院的床位容量。我们使用这些模型来评估武汉为控制 COVID-19 疫情而采取的策略是否成功。根据实际使用的 13 348 个方舱医院床位，我们的模型显示，如果方舱医院于 2 月 6 日（实际开放后的第二天）开业，则 COVID-19 病例总数将达到 7 413 798 例（而不是 50 844 例），死亡人数为 1 396 017 例（而不是 5003 例），并且疫情将持续 179 天（而不是 71 天）。虽然定点医院挽救了重症COVID-19患者的生命，但大量方舱医院床位容量的增加帮助减缓并最终阻止了武汉的COVID-19疫情。鉴于当前 COVID-19 在全球大流行，我们的研究表明，增加医院床位容量，特别是通过方舱医院等临时医院来隔离受影响地区内症状较轻的人群，可能有助于遏制并最终阻止无法进行有效家庭隔离的社区中的 COVID-19 疫情。
To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic. We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic. Based on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71). While the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.