Great Lakes Hydrology Under Transposed Climates
Great Lakes Hydrology Under Transposed Climates
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变换气候下的五大湖水文学
DOI：
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发表时间：
1998
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Changnon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thomas E. Croley II;F. Quinn;K. Kunkel;S. Changnon
根据五大湖南部和西南部地区43年的每日数据，历史气候被用来研究五大湖对温暖气候的水文响应。五大湖环境研究实验室使用他们的概念模型来模拟流入五大湖的121个流域的水分储存和径流、进入每个湖的湖上降水、每个湖的热量储存和蒸发。这种实际气候的转换包含了现有气候中变率和时间的自然变化;这对于在许多其他影响研究中应用于现有历史数据的大气环流模式生成的校正是不正确的。由于积雪减少到100%，换位的气候导致更高和更多变的地面蒸散量和更低的土壤水分和径流，径流峰值更早。水温升高，峰值提前。居住在深湖的热量全年都在增加。浮力驱动的水柱周转频率下降，湖泊蒸发增加，并在整个年度周期中扩散。径流对温度和降水变化的响应在湖泊之间是一致的，并且在很宽的温度变化范围内呈准线性变化，其中一些远远超出了当前GCM对CO2加倍条件的预测范围。
Historical climates, based on 43 years of daily data from areas south and southwest of the Great Lakes, were used to examine the hydrological response of the Great Lakes to warmer climates. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory used their conceptual models for simulating moisture storages in, and runoff from, the 121 watersheds draining into the Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in, and evaporation from, each lake. This transposition of actual climates incorporates natural changes in variability and timing within the existing climate; this is not true for General Circulation Model-generated corrections applied to existing historical data in many other impact studies. The transposed climates lead to higher and more variable over-land evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture and runoff with earlier runoff peaks since the snow pack is reduced up to 100%. Water temperatures increase and peak earlier. Heat resident in the deep lakes increases throughout the year. Buoyancy-driven water column turnover frequency drops and lake evaporation increases and spreads more throughout the annual cycle. The response of runoff to temperature and precipitation changes is coherent among the lakes and varies quasi-linearly over a wide range of temperature changes, some well beyond the range of current GCM predictions for doubled CO2 conditions.