The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2013.29.39
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发表时间：
2013-12-03
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Tollman, Stephen M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sharrow, David J.;Clark, Samuel J.;Tollman, Stephen M.
我们调查了南非前瞻性监测农村人口死亡率的性别-年龄特异性变化。我们通过估计Heligman-Pollard（HP）年龄别死亡率模型的八个参数，有效地量化了死亡率年龄模式的变化。在其传统的形式，这个模型是很难适应，并没有考虑到不确定性。目的（1）量化的变化，在性别年龄模式的死亡率经历了流行性艾滋病病毒感染的人群。2.为了开发和展示一个强大的贝叶斯估计方法的HP模型，占不确定性。METHODSBayesian估计方法是适应工作与HP模型。参数值的时间变化与艾滋病毒流行率的变化有关。在南非艾滋病毒流行不断增长的时期，我们的数据所描述的人口死亡率大幅增加，男性和女性的预期寿命损失均接近15年。HP参数的时间变化以一种简约的方式反映了死亡率年龄模式的变化。我们开发了一个强大的贝叶斯方法来估计HP模型的八个参数，并彻底证明了它。HP模型可以很好地使用贝叶斯方法拟合，其结果可以是有用的，在开发一个简约的描述的年龄模式的变化mortality.COMMENTSThe激励的目的，这项工作是开发新的方法，可以是有用的应用HP八参数模型的年龄别死亡率。我们已经做到了这一点，并选择了一个有趣的应用程序来演示新方法。
BACKGROUNDWe investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently by estimating the eight parameters of the Heligman-Pollard (HP) model of age-specific mortality. In its traditional form this model is difficult to fit and does not account for uncertainty.OBJECTIVE(1) To quantify changes in the sex-age pattern of mortality experienced by a population with endemic HIV. 2. To develop and demonstrate a robust Bayesian estimation method for the HP model that accounts for uncertainty.METHODSBayesian estimation methods are adapted to work with the HP model. Temporal changes in parameter values are related to changes in HIV prevalence.RESULTSOver the period when the HIV epidemic in South Africa was growing, mortality in the population described by our data increased profoundly with losses of life expectancy of similar to 15 years for both males and females. The temporal changes in the HP parameters reflect in a parsimonious way the changes in the age pattern of mortality. We develop a robust Bayesian method to estimate the eight parameters of the HP model and thoroughly demonstrate it.CONCLUSIONSChanges in mortality in South Africa over the past fifteen years have been profound. The HP model can be fit well using Bayesian methods, and the results can be useful in developing a parsimonious description of changes in the age pattern of mortality.COMMENTSThe motivating aim of this work is to develop new methods that can be useful in applying the HP eight-parameter model of age-specific mortality. We have done this and chosen an interesting application to demonstrate the new methods.