Comparison of the epidemiological behavior of mastitis pathogens by applying time-series analysis in results of milk samples submitted for microbiological examination
Comparison of the epidemiological behavior of mastitis pathogens by applying time-series analysis in results of milk samples submitted for microbiological examination
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DOI：
10.1007/s11259-013-9570-1
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Gonzalez-Palencia, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fernandez, G.;Barreal, M. L.;Gonzalez-Palencia, J.
本研究的目的是检查和比较提交给牛奶分析实验室（L.I.G.A.L.）进行微生物检查的乳区牛奶样本（n = 240，232）中乳腺炎病原体的趋势。2005年6月至2011年9月在西班牙加利西亚举行。使用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型和聚类分析等多元统计技术来检测季节趋势和系列趋势之间的相似性，并将乳腺炎病原体分类为相对同质的组。通过近年来在该地区开发的乳腺炎控制计划实现的散装牛奶体细胞计数的减少是由有限数量的乳腺炎病原体引起的IMI减少的结果。所获得的结果反映了乳腺炎病原体行为的更大复杂性，与传统的传染性或环境性分类不同。金黄色葡萄球菌表现出与停乳链球菌相似的趋势，乳腺炎病原体可以以传染性和环境方式表现。在传统上认为的环境性乳腺炎病原体中，链球菌。大肠杆菌和肺炎克雷伯氏菌对大肠杆菌和肺炎克雷伯氏菌表现出不同的行为。凝固酶阴性葡萄球菌（CNS）菌种和链球菌以外的链球菌。在趋势模型中，无乳显示出差异。时间序列分析和多变量统计技术，如聚类分析，可以是强大的工具，以评估乳腺炎病原体的分离趋势，因为它们能够科普连续数据的随机依赖性。此外，他们可以用来确定乳房炎病原体的流行病学行为，使用提交的牛奶样品进行常规微生物检查的结果，通过将它们分为相对同质的组。
The objective of this study is to examine and compare the trends of mastitis pathogens in quarter milk samples (n = 240,232) submitted for microbiological examination at the Milk Analysis Laboratory (L.I.G.A.L.) at Galicia, Spain from June 2005 to September 2011. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and multivariate statistical techniques such as Cluster Analysis were used in order to detect seasonal trends and similarities between the series trends and to classify mastitis pathogens into relatively homogeneous groups. The decrease of bulk milk somatic cell counts achieved by the mastitis control program, developed in recent years in this region, is the result of the decrease in IMI caused by a limited number of mastitis pathogens. The obtained results reflect a greater complexity in the behavior of mastitis pathogens, unlike the traditional classification into contagious or environmental. Staphylococcus aureus showed a trend similar to Streptococcus dysgalactiae, a mastitis pathogen can behave in both a contagious and an environmental manner. Among the traditionally considered environmental mastitis pathogens, Strep. uberis showed a different behavior to Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) species and Streptococcus other than Strep. agalactiae showed differences in the trend model. Time-series analysis and multivariate statistical techniques, such as Cluster Analysis, could be powerful tools to assess the isolation trend of mastitis pathogens because of their ability to cope with stochastic dependence of consecutive data. Furthermore, they could be used to identify the epidemiological behavior of mastitis pathogens using the results of milk samples submitted for routine microbiological examination, by classifying them into relatively homogeneous groups.