Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments
Integrating housing stock and energy system models as a strategy to improve heat decarbonisation assessments
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.06.079
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发表时间：
2014-11
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
P. Dodds
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Dodds
英国政府的供热战略部分基于英国MARKAL能源系统模型的脱碳途径。我们回顾了在英国马卡尔如何提供热量，确定了一些缺点和需要改进的领域。我们提出了一个完全修订的模型，改进了对未来热需求的估计，并一致地表示了所有产热技术。该模型首次代表了所有的热输送基础设施，并根据创新理论使用动态增长约束来改进过渡的建模。我们修订的模型包含了一个简化的住房存量模型，该模型用于为住宅供热提供高度精炼的脱碳途径。我们将这种分解模型与聚合等效模型进行比较，这与英国MARKAL的现有方法类似。在两种情况下，分解并没有很大地改变住宅总燃料消耗，因此，如果研究的重点在其他地方，分解的好处可能会受到限制。然而，对于住宅供暖的研究，与之前的模型汇总版本相比，分类使我们能够改变不同房屋类型的消费者行为和政府政策，并突出不同的技术趋势。
The UK government heat strategy is partially based on decarbonisation pathways from the UK MARKAL energy system model. We review how heat provision is represented in UK MARKAL, identifying a number of shortcomings and areas for improvement. We present a completely revised model with improved estimations of future heat demands and a consistent representation of all heat generation technologies. This model represents all heat delivery infrastructure for the first time and uses dynamic growth constraints to improve the modelling of transitions according to innovation theory. Our revised model incorporates a simplified housing stock model, which is used produce highly-refined decarbonisation pathways for residential heat provision. We compare this disaggregated model against an aggregated equivalent, which is similar to the existing approach in UK MARKAL. Disaggregating does not greatly change the total residential fuel consumption in two scenarios, so the benefits of disaggregation will likely be limited if the focus of a study is elsewhere. Yet for studies of residential heat, disaggregation enables us to vary consumer behaviour and government policies on different house types, as well as highlighting different technology trends across the stock, in comparison with previous aggregated versions of the model.