Critical Substation Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Critical Substation Risk Assessment and Mitigation
复制标题
关键变电站风险评估和缓解
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jacques Delport
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jacques Delport
变电站是电力系统中的节点，对电力系统的稳定可靠运行至关重要。它们与电力系统的其他部分形成对比，因为它们是关键组件的密集组合，导致所有组件同时容易受到一个孤立事件的影响：天气，攻击或其他常见故障模式。毫无疑问，这些重要环节的损失将对电网产生不同程度的严重影响。这项工作创建了一个级联模型的基础上，保护系统误操作，以估计系统的风险，从失去变电站的事件，以评估每个substa临界。利用连续潮流法估计级联过程中的电压崩溃。通过使用称为随机森林的监督机器学习算法来包括瞬态稳定性。这些森林允许快速，强大和准确的预测暂态稳定在损失的变电站启动级联。变电站风险指标被纳入预防性最优潮流（OPF），以降低风险的关键变电站。这种基于风险的调度代表了一种易于扩展的、鲁棒的算法，用于降低与变电站损耗相关联的风险。这种新的调度允许运营商在变电站可能丢失（诸如大的天气事件、可能的攻击等）的短时间内在较高成本的操作点操作，并且显著降低与这些丢失相关联的系统风险。系统风险，然后研究考虑的相互作用的电网公用事业公司试图保护他们的关键变电站下的预算约束和潜在的攻击者与内幕信息的关键变电站。这是在零和博弈理论框架下研究的，在这个框架中，效用试图混淆攻击者。然后开发一个模型来分析公用事业如何创建一个强大的保护策略，不能严重利用，同时利用任何潜在的攻击者可能会犯的错误。关键变电站风险评估和缓解
Substations are joints in the power system that represent nodes that are vital to stable and reliable operation of the power system. They contrast the rest of the power system in that they are a dense combination of critical components causing all of them to be simultaneously vulnerable to one isolated incident: weather, attack, or other common failure modes. Undoubtedly, the loss of these vital links will have a severe impact to the to the power grid to varying degrees. This work creates a cascading model based on protection system misoperations to estimate system risk from loss-of-substation events in order to assess each substa criticality. A continuation power flow method is utilized for estimating voltage collapse during cascades. Transient stability is included through the use of a supervised machine learning algorithm called random forests. These forests allow for fast, robust and accurate prediction of transient stability during loss-of-substation initiated cascades. Substation risk indices are incorporated into a preventative optimal power flow (OPF) to reduce the risk of critical substations. This risk-based dispatch represents an easily scalable, robust algorithm for reducing risk associated with substation losses. This new dispatch allows operators to operate at a higher cost operating point for short periods in which substations may likely be lost, such as large weather events, likely attacks, etc. and significantly reduce system risk associated with those losses. System risk is then studied considering the interaction of a power grid utility trying to protect their critical substations under a constrained budget and a potential attacker with insider information on critical substations. This is studied under a zero-sum game theoretic framework in which the utility is trying to confuse the attacker. A model is then developed to analyze how a utility may create a robust strategy of protection that cannot be heavily exploited while taking advantage of any mistakes potential attackers may make. Critical Substation Risk Assessment and Mitigation