What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?
What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112326
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发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
T. B. Tibebu;E. Hittinger;Qing Miao;E. Williams
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. B. Tibebu;E. Hittinger;Qing Miao;E. Williams
我们如何设计清洁能源补贴，为社会带来更大的好处？对这个问题的分析答案很少。建模应该既考虑到补贴支付当年刺激消费者采用的直接好处，也应该考虑降低未来技术成本的间接好处。我们开发了美国住宅太阳能补贴的效益-成本分析，按州分类，考虑了技术进步、消费者采用以及碳减排和标准减排。我们评估了现有的太阳能补贴，并找到了从2018年开始实现净效益最大化的最佳补贴时间表。在基本情况下，国家灵活的最优补贴时间表从585美元/千瓦开始，14年后降至零。与当前的联邦税收抵免相比，最优补贴的起点更高，下降速度更快，这是因为早期成本降低带来的长期好处，以及随着技术变得更便宜而需要减少补贴。我们还估计了各州的灵活补贴，与同质的国家补贴(28亿美元对10亿美元)相比，这种补贴产生了更高的净效益。忽略污染效益标准，考虑到技术进步和消费者行为的最优补贴，每减少一吨碳，政府花费45-49美元，远远低于总减排成本。
How do we design clean energy subsidies to deliver greater benefits to society? Analytical answers to this question are scarce. Modeling should address both direct benefits from stimulating consumer adoption the year the subsidy is paid as well as indirect benefits from lowering future technology costs. We develop a benefit-cost analysis of residential solar subsidies in the US, disaggregated by state, accounting for technological progress, consumer adoption, and carbon and criteria emission reductions. We assess existing solar subsidies and also find the optimal subsidy schedule that maximizes net benefits starting in the year 2018. In the base case the national flexible optimal subsidy schedule begins at $585/kW and declines to zero in 14 years. The optimal subsidy starts higher and falls more quickly than the current federal tax credit, due to long-term benefits from early cost reductions and the need to reduce subsidies as a technology becomes cheaper. We also estimate state-by-state flexible subsidies which result in higher net benefits compared to a homogenous national subsidy ($2.8 billion versus $1.0 billion). Neglecting criteria pollution benefits, optimal subsidies accounting for technological progress and consumer behavior cost the government $45–49 per ton of carbon abated, much lower than the total abatement cost.