Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.
Estimating the United States demand for influenza antivirals and the effect on severe influenza disease during a potential pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/civ084
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Meltzer MI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O'Hagan JJ;Wong KK;Campbell AP;Patel A;Swerdlow DL;Fry AM;Koonin LM;Meltzer MI
在检测到新型流感毒株 A(H7N9) 后，我们模拟了美国在一系列假设的大流行情况下使用抗病毒治疗来减轻严重疾病的情况。我们的结果是抗病毒（神经氨酸酶抑制剂）治疗的总需求以及避免的住院和死亡人数。该模型包括对发病率、就医行为、处方率、依从性、疾病严重程度以及抗病毒药物对住院和死亡风险的潜在影响的估计。根据这些信息，估计美国可用的总抗病毒治疗方案（截至 2013 年 4 月）足以满足所考虑情况的治疗需求。然而，配送物流并未得到审查，应在未来的工作中解决。据估计，治疗可以避免许多严重后果（5,200-248,000 人死亡；4,800-504,000 人住院）；然而，仍有大量患者死亡（25,000-425,000 人死亡；583,000-3,700,000 人住院），这表明应审查干预措施组合的影响。
Following the detection of a novel influenza strain, A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5,200–248,000 deaths; 4,800–504,000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25,000–425,000 deaths; 583,000–3,700,000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined.