A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)
A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)
复制标题
恐怖分子领导理论（及其对领导目标的影响）
DOI：
10.1080/09546553.2012.751912
复制
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Michael Freeman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michael Freeman
各国往往以恐怖主义领导人为目标，认为领导人的死亡或被捕将导致恐怖主义组织的崩溃。然而，这种“领导力定位”策略的历史提供了一个混合的记录-对于每一个有效的例子，都有类似的无效例子。本文的中心问题是：是什么让恐怖分子领导人变得重要？具体来说，恐怖主义领导人做了什么其他人不能为组织做（或做得一样好）的事情？为了回答这个问题，我发展了一个恐怖分子领导理论，认为领导者可能潜在地执行两个主要功能：他们可以提供灵感和/或行动方向（或两者都不）。我还从理论上解释了随着组织本身的变化，这些职能的提供如何以及为什么会随着时间的推移而变化。领导力目标化的结果自然来自这一理论--当领导者为组织提供这些功能时，领导力目标化最有可能是有效的。对阿尔及利亚、秘鲁和日本的案例研究提供了一些见解，说明为什么一些针对领导人的案例是有效的，而另一些则不是。结论部分通过对本·拉登死后基地组织前景的分析，扩展了这一模型。
States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.