South Asian perspective on temperature and rainfall extremes: A review
South Asian perspective on temperature and rainfall extremes: A review
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.021
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发表时间：
2019-09
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
G. Naveendrakumar;M. Vithanage;H. Kwon;S. Chandrasekara;M. Iqbal;S. Pathmarajah;W. Fernando;J. O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Naveendrakumar;M. Vithanage;H. Kwon;S. Chandrasekara;M. Iqbal;S. Pathmarajah;W. Fernando;J. O
气候变化已经突破了我们环境的自然极限，在地球仪的某些地方造成了更加频繁和更加严重的极端天气事件。有证据表明，南亚大多数国家的极端气温呈上升趋势，而在少数几个区域，极端气温一直在下降。热浪加剧，导致大多数南亚国家的干旱和极端洪水事件加速。降雨量和温度的总体变化导致该地区水资源的变化。除少数例外情况外，大多数南亚国家的普遍现象是降雨强度增加，但潮湿天数减少。在南亚地区，有关降雨和温度的研究很少，对极端降雨的研究比极端温度的研究更广泛。事实上，在大多数南亚国家，气温趋势在空间上不如降雨趋势连贯。它更可能是遥相关和南亚气候的影响温度和降雨模式，而不是任何其他因素。在趋势估计方面，统计斜率检测指标，如简单线性回归，通常用于检测和量化南亚地区国家的平均趋势。然而，应用缺乏使用强大的非参数统计测试，以量化南亚许多国家的极端温度和降雨量。为了提高预测准确性，并发现趋势的空间一致性，建议采用统计降尺度方法。
Climate change has pushed the natural limits of our environment, creating extreme weather events that are more frequent and more intense in certain locations around the globe. There is evidence of increasing trends in temperature extremes in most countries of South Asia, while in a few regions, temperature extremes have been decreasing. Heatwaves have intensified, which has contributed to accelerating drought and extreme flood events in most South Asian countries. Overall changes in rainfall and temperature have led to alterations in water availability in this region. With few exceptions, the general phenomenon in most South Asian countries is that rainfall intensity has increased, but with a reduced number of wet days. Studies that associate rainfall and temperature in the region of South Asia are scarce and rainfall extremes have been studied more extensively than temperature extremes. In fact, temperature trends are spatially less coherent than rainfall trends in most south Asian countries. It is more likely correlated for the teleconnection and South Asian climate for influencing the temperature and rainfall pattern, rather than any other factors. When it comes to trend estimations, statistical slope detection metrics, such as simple linear regression, have been commonly used to detect and quantify mean trends for countries in the regions of South Asia. However, application lacks in usage of robust nonparametric statistical tests to quantify temperature and rainfall extremes in many countries of South Asia. Statistical downscaling is recommended for better prediction accuracy as well as to find spatial coherence in trends.