Valuing uncertain cash flows from investments that enhance energy efficiency.
Valuing uncertain cash flows from investments that enhance energy efficiency.
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评估来自提高能源效率的投资的不确定现金流。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.09.030
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
M. González‐Eguino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. M. Abadie;José M. Chamorro;M. González‐Eguino
一个广泛的共识是，提高能源效率的投资很快就会带来更低的能源账单和更少的排放配额。然而，乍一看似乎值得的投资通常不会付诸实施。一个看似合理、不容排除的解释是，这些投资面临着诸多不确定性。本文讨论的是在现有设施中投资提高能源效率的最佳时机，这些设施消耗大量化石燃料（煤），并在碳限制下运行。我们遵循实物期权方法。我们的模型包括三个不确定性来源，遵循不同的随机过程，允许在广泛的设置中应用。我们用一个三维二项式格来评估投资选择。我们计算触发投资成本，即，低于立即投资将是最优的阈值水平。我们分析了这一决定的主要驱动因素，从而针对这方面最有希望的政策。
There is a broad consensus that investments to enhance energy efficiency quickly pay for themselves in lower energy bills and spared emission allowances. However, investments that at first glance seem worthwhile usually are not undertaken. One of the plausible, non-excluding explanations is the numerous uncertainties that these investments face. This paper deals with the optimal time to invest in an energy efficiency enhancement at a facility already in place that consumes huge amounts of a fossil fuel (coal) and operates under carbon constraints. We follow the Real Options approach. Our model comprises three sources of uncertainty following different stochastic processes which allows for application in a broad range of settings. We assess the investment option by means of a three-dimensional binomial lattice. We compute the trigger investment cost, i.e., the threshold level below which immediate investment would be optimal. We analyze the major drivers of this decision thus aiming at the most promising policies in this regard.