Viewing the future through a warped lens: Why uncertainty generates hyperbolic discounting
Viewing the future through a warped lens: Why uncertainty generates hyperbolic discounting
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DOI：
10.1007/s11166-011-9129-x
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发表时间：
2011-12-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Bruhin, Adrian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Epper, Thomas;Fehr-Duda, Helga;Bruhin, Adrian
大量的实验研究表明，平均而言，人们违反了预期效用理论和贴现效用理论的公理。特别是，总体行为的最佳特征是概率扭曲和双曲线贴现。但是，是同一批人容易出现这些行为吗？基于显着的货币激励措施的实验，我们证明了有一个强大的和显着的关系，从线性概率加权和程度上降低贴现率在个人行为的水平更大的偏离。我们认为，这种关系可以合理的内在的不确定性，在任何未来的事件，直接联系贴现行为的风险偏好。因此，人们对概率失真的倾向可能会导致贴现率下降。
A large body of experimental research has demonstrated that, on average, people violate the axioms of expected utility theory as well as of discounted utility theory. In particular, aggregate behavior is best characterized by probability distortions and hyperbolic discounting. But is it the same people who are prone to these behaviors? Based on an experiment with salient monetary incentives we demonstrate that there is a strong and significant relationship between greater departures from linear probability weighting and the degree of decreasing discount rates at the level of individual behavior. We argue that this relationship can be rationalized by the uncertainty inherent in any future event, linking discounting behavior directly to risk preferences. Consequently, decreasing discount rates may be generated by people's proneness to probability distortions.