Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective
Evaluating space weather forecasts of geomagnetic activity from a user perspective
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从用户角度评估地磁活动的空间天气预报
DOI：
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Thomson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Thomson
决策理论可用作与空间气象预报用户讨论自满和误报的相对代价的工具。我们描述了一个新的度量空间天气预报的价值，来自决策理论。特别是，我们给出了预测必须超过的准确度水平的方程，以便对特定客户有用。通过对全球地磁活动以及不列颠群岛地球物理勘探和电网管理的简化示例预测来说明该技术。
Decision Theory can be used as a tool for discussing the relative costs of complacency and false alarms with users of space weather forecasts. We describe a new metric for the value of space weather forecasts, derived from Decision Theory. In particular we give equations for the level of accuracy that a forecast must exceed in order to be useful to a specific customer. The technique is illustrated by simplified example forecasts for global geomagnetic activity and for geophysical exploration and power grid management in the British Isles.