Predicting potential distributions of large carnivores in Kenya: An occupancy study to guide conservation
Predicting potential distributions of large carnivores in Kenya: An occupancy study to guide conservation
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.13554
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发表时间：
2022-06-14
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Elliot, Nicholas B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Broekhuis, Femke;Ngene, Shadrack;Elliot, Nicholas B.
目的：物种特有的保护策略往往是制定物种分布图的基础上，这是具有挑战性的生产，特别是在大的空间尺度。我们的目的是使用一种新的经验方法来预测在肯尼亚发现的所有六种大型食肉动物物种的全国分布，通过确定知识和保护差距来指导保护和管理决策。地点：肯尼亚。方法：我们通过问卷调查和基于目击的调查收集了食肉动物存在和不存在的数据，并使用单季假阳性占用模型分析了合并数据集，这导致了不完美的检测和误报。为了预测潜在的分布并为保护策略提供信息，我们使用占用率输出对未采样区域进行预测，并创建基于占用率的分布图（psi > 0.50），以（1）量化与IUCN红色名录范围图的差异，（2）量化与野生动物区域的重叠，（3）识别食肉动物丰富度高的区域。大型食肉动物占用与土地转换，栖息地和猎物的可用性。我们的研究结果表明，所有六个物种广泛分布在肯尼亚，并揭示了由世界自然保护联盟红色名录编制的分布图的重大差异。更具体地说，我们基于占有率的分布图预测非洲野狗（5.09X），狮子（4.77X）和豹（1.46X）的分布要大得多，猎豹的分布类似，斑点鬣狗（0.84X）和条纹鬣狗（0.65X）的分布较小。对于所有的大型食肉动物，绝大多数（类似于80%），他们的预测分布福尔斯以外的野生动物区和北方肯尼亚预计有最高的大型食肉动物richard.Main conclusions：我们的研究结果是令人鼓舞的大型食肉动物可能广泛分布在肯尼亚，在某些情况下可能比以前承认的。然而，这一范围的大部分位于野生动物区之外，代表了保护和人类生计的关注领域，说明了在其范围内保护大型食肉动物的挑战。
Aim: Species-specific conservation strategies are frequently formulated based on species distribution maps, which are challenging to produce, especially at large spatial scales. Our aim was to use a novel empirical approach to predict the national distribution for all six large carnivore species found in Kenya to guide conservation and management decisions by identifying knowledge and conservation gaps.Location: Kenya.Methods: We collected data on carnivore presence and absence through questionnaire and sightings-based surveys and analysed the combined data set using single-season false-positive occupancy models, which account for imperfect detections and false positives. To predict potential distributions and inform conservation strategies, we used the occupancy outputs to make predictions for unsampled areas and create occupancy-based distribution maps where psi > 0.50, to (1) quantify differences with IUCN Red List range maps, (2) quantify overlap with wildlife areas and (3) identify areas of high carnivore richness.Results: Large carnivore occupancy was associated with land conversion, habitat and prey availability. Our results suggest that all six species are widely distributed across Kenya and reveal substantial differences to distribution maps compiled by the IUCN Red List. More specifically, our occupancy-based distribution maps predict much larger distribution for African wild dog (5.09X), lion (4.77X) and leopard (1.46X), similar distribution for cheetah, and smaller distribution for spotted hyaena (0.84X) and striped hyaena (0.65X). For all large carnivores, the vast majority (similar to 80%) of their predicted distribution falls outside wildlife areas and northern Kenya is predicted to have the highest large carnivore richness.Main conclusions: Our results are encouraging as large carnivores may be widely distributed across Kenya, in some cases potentially more so than previously acknowledged. However, much of this range lies outside wildlife areas and represent areas of concern both for conservation and human livelihoods illustrating the challenges of conserving large carnivores across their range.