Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030
Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2015.04.020
复制
发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Heppenstall, Alison
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Jing;Mitchell, Gordon;Heppenstall, Alison
评价发展中国家城市的交通运输政策往往受到数据可用性的制约，这限制了传统评价模型的使用。在这里，我们提出了一个新的“自下而上”的方法来估计交通CO2排放量从日常的城市乘客出行的北京，一个大城市的出行行为的数据相对稀疏。基于活动日志调查和两次抽样人口普查的空间微观模拟，用于模拟北京市城区，一个现实的合成人口，他们的日常出行和CO2排放量在2000-2010年。这种方法提供了更深入的了解交通CO2排放的空间变异性比以前可能的北京，并进一步，使社会人口，城市形态和交通发展的作用，在促进排放的模拟期间的检查。以2000-2010年的二氧化碳排放量估算值为基准，在探讨交通（公共交通基础设施投资和车辆限制）、城市发展（紧凑化）和车辆技术（更快地采用清洁车辆技术）等政治上可行的战略的情景下，对2030年乘客出行的二氧化碳排放量进行建模。结果表明，与趋势情景相比，同时采用交通和城市发展政策可以减少2030年乘客二氧化碳排放总量的24%，如果所有策略一起应用，则可减少43%。这项研究揭示了微观模拟在发展中国家大城市排放量估算中的潜力，这些城市的数据可用性可能会限制更传统的方法。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Evaluating transport policy for cities in developing countries is often constrained by data availability that limits the use of conventional appraisal models. Here, we present a new 'bottom-up' methodology to estimate transport CO2 emission from daily urban passenger travel for Beijing, a megacity with relatively sparse data on travel behaviour. A spatial microsimulation, based on an activity diary survey and two sample population censuses, is used to simulate, for Beijing's urban districts, a realistic synthetic population, and their daily travel and CO2 emission over 2000-2010. This approach provides greater insight into the spatial variability of transport CO2 emission than has previously been possible for Beijing, and further, enables an examination of the role of socio-demographics, urban form and transport developments in contributing to emissions over the modelled period. Using the 2000-2010 CO2 emission estimates as a baseline, CO2 emissions from passenger travel are then modelled to 2030 under scenarios exploring politically plausible strategies on transport (public transport infrastructure investment, and vehicle constraint), urban development (compaction) and vehicle technology (faster adoption of clean vehicle technology). The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO2 emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. The study reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.