Projecting cancer incidence and mortality using Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
Projecting cancer incidence and mortality using Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
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DOI：
10.1080/135952201317080698
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Esteve, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bashir, S A;Esteve, J
背景技术背景：我们提出了一个实际应用的年龄-时期-队列模型在贝叶斯框架工作作出cancer-burden projects.METHODS：二度自回归平滑年龄，时期和队列的影响，估计未来的发病率和mortals.RESULTS：我们能够证明这种方法的可行性，灵活性和优势。与以前使用的方法相比，它表现得更好，提供点估计时，过去的趋势持续到未来。然而，非常广泛的可信区间需要仔细interpretation.Discussion：部分的不确定性是由于可能的不足的模型，并不一定相关的预测会发生什么，如果目前的趋势继续到未来。
BACKGROUND: We present a practical application of an age-period-cohort model in a Bayesian frame-work for making cancer-burden projections.METHODS: Second degree autoregressive smoothing was used on the age, period and cohort effects for estimating future incidence and mortality.RESULTS: We are able to demonstrate the feasibility, flexibility and strengths of this approach. Compared with previously used methods, it performed better for providing point estimates when past trends continued into the future. However, the extremely wide credible intervals need careful interpretation.DISCUSSION: Part of the uncertainty is attributable to the possible inadequacy of the model and not necessarily relevant in the prediction of what would happen if the present trends continue into the future.