Expert credibility in climate change
Expert credibility in climate change
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1003187107
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发表时间：
2010-07-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Schneider, Stephen H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anderegg, William R. L.;Prall, James W.;Schneider, Stephen H.
尽管从已发表的文献和专家调查中得出的初步估计表明，气候科学家对人为气候变化（ACC）的原则达成了惊人的一致，但美国公众对ACC的人为原因和科学共识水平表示怀疑。对气候科学家社区本身的广泛分析，持不同意见的研究人员相对于持相同意见的研究人员的可信度分布，高级气候专家之间的协议水平尚未进行，并将为未来的ACC讨论提供信息。在这里，我们使用了1,372名气候研究人员的广泛数据集及其出版和引用数据，以表明（i）在这里调查的领域中最活跃的气候研究人员中有97-98%支持政府间气候变化专门委员会概述的ACC原则，和（ii）不相信ACC的研究人员的相对气候专业知识和科学突出性大大低于相信ACC的研究人员。
Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.