The Influence of Perceived Event’s Controllability on Its Subjective Occurrence Probability
The Influence of Perceived Event’s Controllability on Its Subjective Occurrence Probability
复制标题
感知事件的可控性对其主观发生概率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
1984
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Zakay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Zakay
进行了两个实验，其中受试者估计事件的发生概率。事件分为以下四类：具有可由行为者控制的积极结果的事件（CP）;具有不可由行为者控制的积极结果的事件（UP）;具有可控制的消极结果的事件（CN）;以及具有不可控制的消极结果的事件（UN）。在第一个实验中，32名学生估计每个事件发生在自己身上的概率（PP）和发生在亲密同学身上的概率（MP）。在第二个实验中，另外32名学生估计关于每个事件PP和概率，它会发生在一个人不知道，不相关的估计（OP）。发现对于CN事件，PP低于MP，而对于CP事件，PP高于MP。然而，在未控制的事件方面没有发现显著差异，无论是积极的还是消极的。控制事件的结果在第二个实验中重复，但PP低于OP的UN和UP事件。的主观概率的性质的理解的研究结果的意义进行了讨论。
Two experiments in which subjects estimated occurrence probabilities of events were conducted. Events belonged to the following four categories: Events with positive outcomes that could be controlled by the actor (CP); events with positive outcomes that could not be controlled by the actor (UP); events with negative outcomes that could be controlled (CN); and events with negative outcomes that could not be controlled (UN). In the first experiment 32 students estimated in regard to each event the probability that the event will happen to oneself (PP) and the probability that it will happen to a close classmate (MP). In the second experiment another 32 students estimated in regard to each event PP and the probability that it will happen to somebody not known and not related to the estimator (OP). It was found that PP was lower than MP regarding CN events and higher than MP regarding CP events. However, no significant differences were found in regard to uncontrolled events, both positive and negative. The results of the controlled events were replicated in the second experiment but PP were lower than OP regarding both UN and UP events. The significance of the findings for the understanding of the nature of subjective probability is discussed.